Expert Oddsmaker: Is Wembanyama The Next $500m Contract Athlete?

Legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner is back again, bringing nearly 40 years of experience in the sports betting industry. This week, he’s talking about the biggest sports and sports stars around the world: here’s his take on who will be the next athlete to sign a $500m+ contract.

When pondering such a question, one has multiple options to consider, not only from the athlete’s perspective, but from the sport itself in which he participates in. Let’s get to it.

Next athlete to sign a $500M+ contract odds

Athlete	Age	Odds	Implied Probability
Victor Wembanyama	21	+225	30.77%
Tarik Skubal	28	+270	27.03%
Nikola Jokic	30	+390	20.41%
Neymar	33	+390	20.41%
Anthony Edwards	24	+475	17.39%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	30	+475	17.39%
Karim Benzema	37	+650	13.33%
Luka Doncic	26	+800	11.11%
Steph Curry	37	+1200	7.69%
🏎️ Max Verstappen	28	+1200	7.69%
Kylian Mbappe	26	+1450	6.45%
⛳️ Field		+145	40.82%

Next athlete to sign a $500M+ contract odds analysis

Things to consider. First of all, to attain such a high mark in today’s marketplace, one has to consider the length of the contract to be able to snare such a level of greatness.

To that, one must also consider today’s current market value of the top tier (realized or potential) athlete and what his situation is. Particularly how many years remain in his current contract.

Second, the sport in which he plays, is a major factor whether the athlete can attain the $500 million plateau.

NHL

So right away we can drop all hope that a professional hockey player will be it. For some reason, the NHL is far behind the other three main US sports and several international favorites to even consider the remote chance.

NFL

Next sport to consider is the NFL. There is only one football player in the upper echelon of top tier players who commands more than seven years on a single contract.

That would be Patrick Mahomes.

He’s tied up for 10 years which automatically eliminates him due to the fact his current contract runs through 2031. Top tier quarterbacks claim the top 14 spots of priciest contracts in the NFL.

At this point in time, they are averaging between $45 and $55 million per season which means they would need that elusive 10-year deal. Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are the youngest on the top 14 but are tied up until 2028 and 2030 respectively.

Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson are the first of the group to be free agents in 2027 and 2026 but let’s be real, Watson has no chance of getting a contract close to that amount next time he’s up.

NBA

Victor Wembanyama | +225 | Implied Probability: 30.77%

If you’re looking for that one athlete who can be so dominant to command a five-year, $500 million contract, Victor is your man.

Nikola Jokic | +390 | Implied Probability: 20.41%

Well deserving with his credentials but his age may be a drawback when this contract will be negotiated.

Anthony Edwards | +475 | Implied Probability: 17.39%

His age, his talent, the timing is about right if he’s healthy when contract talks come about.

Giannis Antetokounmpo | +475 | Implied Probability: 17.39%

He’s simply in the conversation.

Luka Doncic | +800 | Implied Probability: 11.11 %

He’s in the right market for this kind of contract. If he doesn’t get it from the Lakers, I’m sure the crosstown MLB Los Angeles Dodgers will come up with the loot.

Steph Curry | +1200 | Implied Probability: 7.69%

He wants to play into his 40’s. He could get a “thank you” contract from Dubs hierarchy.

The NBA is an intriguing outlier to produce such a contract. Jayson Tatum, Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, Kevin Booker and Joel Embiid all are now in contracts yielding between $62 and $68 million per season but the caveat there is the way the NBA structures its salary cap.

Contracts over 5 years long are non-existent. We’d need to see that $100 million per season unicorn.

Lo’ and behold, the NBA has a name that does surface to the top. He’s young, capable of complete domination on the court and will be a restricted free agent by the 2027-28 season. That would be Victor Wembayana.

We could speculate Nikola Jokic would have a chance with his sparkling credentials but he’ll be 32 by the time he can opt out of his current contract for the 2027-28 season. Two years from now may not be enough time for a single season average of $100 million.

MLB

Tarik Skubal | +270 | Implied Probability: 27.03%

He’s here largely because his contract talks come up first among these listed.

Finally, of the four main US sports, baseball offers plenty of chances with their history of long-term contracts and current AAV.

There have now been 29 MLB contracts totaling 10 years or longer, the latest being the 14-year, $500 million extension Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reached with the Blue Jays early in the 2025 campaign.

Juan Soto’s 15-year contract stands out as a top contract along with Shohei Ohtani’s convoluted deferred signing for $700 million topping the list.

⚽️ Soccer

Neymar | +390 | Implied Probability: 20.41%

With his name and a move to the Saudi Pro League, there’s no doubt there’s a chance.

Karim Benzema | +650 | Implied Probability: 13.33%

See Neymar, and he’s already in the Saudi Pro League.

Kylian Mbappe | +1450 | Implied Probability: 6.45%

Young, talented, could be the dark horse on this list.

Overrated athletes playing under the radar when it comes to top salaries would have to include soccer legends Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.

They, by far, have the two highest AAV salaries of $214,534,727 and $168,500,000 per season but for only an incredible two-year period. Cristiano Ronaldo recently signed a deal reportedly worth $700m, and Messi just recently signed a three-year extension through 2028, eliminating them for this article’s purposes.

🏁 Motorsports

🏎️ Max Verstappen | +1200 | Implied Probability: 7.69%

F1 has to have their representative. His high AAV is close but getting the years may get sticky.

F1 drivers command top AAV numbers with Max Verstappen leading the way with a $75 million annual. Lewis Hamilton takes the Silver medal with $57 million then there’s a drop-off from there.

So, the most important factors are timing of when these athletes will get a new contract, the age of the athlete at the time of signing and what league they’re in that would command such a deal.

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