We’re a few days away from one of the biggest nights in the entertainment calendar, and sports bettors are busy analysing the Grammy odds. If you’re looking to get involved in the action before February 2, take a look at our expert analysis to inform your Grammy Awards predictions.
Grammy Odds favorites: Top of the charts, and top of the betting markets
The past 12 months have been dominated by Beyonce, Billie Eilish, Sabrina Carpenter, Charli XCX, and Taylor Swift. Unsurprisingly, this positive spotlight in the music industry has directly correlated to the Grammy Awards odds for the major categories.
| Award |
Favorite |
Odds* |
Probability |
| Album of the Year |
Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish) |
-120 |
55% |
| Record of the Year |
Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) |
-430 |
81% |
| Song of the Year |
Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) |
-180 |
64% |
| Best New Artist |
Chappell Roan |
-550 |
85% |
While a lot of the talk might be focused on these five superstars, there is often some upsets of note and the Grammy odds have proven to be wrong in the past. Music fans and bettors alike might also be keeping an eye on Billie Eilish picking up a clean sweep across Album of the Year (-120), Record of the Year (+380), and Song of the Year (-180). She became the third musician, and first female, to win all four headline awards in a single ceremony in 2020 (she only qualifies for three of the four this time around).
There is sure to be plenty of talk of Grammy Awards odds 2025 between now and the event taking place on February 2. I’ll be keeping an eye on any market movement.
Grammy Awards Song of the Year odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Probability |
| Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) |
-180 |
64% |
| Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) |
+480 |
17% |
| Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) |
+550 |
15% |
| Die with a Smile (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars) |
+750 |
12% |
| Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyonce) |
+1300 |
7% |
| Fortnight (Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone) |
+1400 |
7% |
Billie Eilish has been pretty solid in this market since the nominations came out in November, her hit Birds of a Feather hasn’t moved from top spot in the market for a number of weeks. Interestingly, the odds haven’t shortened all that much. Despite being favorite, this is one award where an outsider has a very credible chance.
Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us is second favorite at +480 but I’m more interested in some of his Super Bowl half time show odds than taking him in this market. Instead, I like Chappell Roan’s chances at +550 with her hit Good Luck, Babe!.
This is the eighth time in a row Taylor Swift – yes, she has her own Taylor Swift Super Bowl props – has secured a nomination for Song of the Year, but her Grammy Awards odds in this market aren’t giving her much hope of a first win in the category. She currently has a 7% according to her odds of +1400.
Grammy Awards Record of the Year odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Probability |
| Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) |
-430 |
81% |
| Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) |
+380 |
21% |
| Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) |
+500 |
17% |
| Now and Then (The Beatles) |
+1000 |
9% |
| Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) |
+1100 |
8% |
| Fortnight (Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone) |
+1400 |
7% |
An important distinction to make for the Record of the Year award at the Grammy’s is that it goes to the people involved in crafting a “recording” (hence record). The Song the Year is more focused on the songwriter for a specific song. When I look at Record of the Year odds, Espresso by Sabrina Carpenter is the right favorite, but it’s hard to make a case for it being a value play at -430. I’m just glad to be sitting on a ticket at -160.
Peaking at number three on the Billboard Hot 100 might put some bettors off, especially when previous winners Flowers (Miley Cyrus), About Damn Time (Lizzo), and Leave the Door Open (Bruno Mars) all secured the number one spot before winning the award. However, the market has been nothing but bullish on Espresso and it’s hard to make a case for anything else at this point.
Grammy Awards Album of the Year odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Probability |
| Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish) |
-120 |
55% |
| The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) |
+350 |
22% |
| Brat (Charli XCX) |
+600 |
40% |
| Cowboy Carter (Beyonce) |
+600 |
30% |
| The Rise and Fall of Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan) |
+1200 |
8% |
| Short n’ Sweet (Sabrina Carpenter) |
+2000 |
5% |
This is perhaps one of the hardest Grammy Awards odds markets to unpick. I tend to make my Grammy Awards predictions early to try and get value, but I feel like I may have got things wrong on this one with an early play on Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department. I took odds of -125 but any closing line value has disappeared as Billie Eilish has steamed in from +450 to now lead the market at -120.
If you think 2024 was more than just a ‘Brat Summer’ and Charli XCX is in with a shot of taking home this headline award, the album Brat is available at +600. This is considerably shorter than the +1000 available a couple of months ago.
Other Awards Betting Markets
Grammy Awards predictions: Is there value outside of the favorites?
The beauty of the Grammy Awards is that they are very difficult to predict, and there is always a few surprise winners each year. Trust me, I have studied the form and analysed the historical data and it is very difficult to find some correlation that would lead to a genuine edge in the Grammy Awards odds markets.
Although not major outsiders, here are are my most interesting picks out of the Grammy Awards 2025 odds.
- Good Luck, Babe! (Chappel Roan) – +550 Song of the Year ddds
- Sabrina Carpenter – +750 Best New Artists odds
- Guess (Charli XCX ft. Billie Eilish) – +750 Best Pop/Duo Group odds
It’s also worth noting that if you’re betting for a bit of fun then combination betting could be a good way to boost the excitement, and your potential profit, on the night. If you wanted to combine some of my shorter odds picks into parlays you could get the following.
- Sabrina Carpenter Record of the Year and Best New Artist (+950)
- The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) Album of the Year, Cowboy Carter (Beyonce) Best Country Album, and Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyonce) Best Country Song (+1250)
Grammy Awards odds 2025: Other markets to monitor
With so much attention on the marquee awards, I have quite often found success in looking away from these markets and looking elsewhere. I’ve highlighted just some of the markets that are of interest to me this year, and explained the reasons why.
Grammy Awards Best Country Album odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Implied Probability |
| Cowboy Carter (Beyonce) |
-700 |
87.5% |
| Higher (Chris Stapleton) |
+550 |
15% |
| Deeper Well (Kacey Musgraves) |
+1900 |
5% |
| Whirlwind (Lainey Wilson) |
+3100 |
3% |
| F-1 Trillion (Post Malone) |
+3100 |
3% |
While Beyonce is nominated for multiple awards, it looks like the Best Country Album is one of her best chances of adding to her record breaking total of 32 Grammy Awards wins. Best Country Album odds of -700 are too short for me here, but it clearly is a very likely winner.
Grammy Awards Best Country Song odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Implied Probability |
| Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyonce) |
-210 |
68% |
| A Bar Song [Tipsy] (Shaboozey) |
+280 |
26% |
| I Had Some Help (Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen) |
+900 |
10% |
| The Architect (Kacey Musgraves) |
+2200 |
4.5% |
| I Am Not Okay (Jelly Roll) |
+2400 |
4% |
This is another category where Beyonce is favorite. Texas Hold ‘Em currently has Best Country Song odds of -210 and although Beyonce is fully deserving of her awards, this could be one where you play on the fact that the Academy voting members clearly rate her music very highly. That could already be baked into the odds, but I’m taking -210 here.
Grammy Awards Best Pop Solo odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Implied Probability |
| Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) |
-430 |
81% |
| Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) |
+500 |
17% |
| Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) |
+750 |
12% |
| Bodyguard (Beyonce) |
+3100 |
3% |
| Apple (Charlie XCX) |
+3700 |
2.5% |
Grammy Awards Best Pop/Duo Group odds
| Nominee |
Odds* |
Implied Probability |
| Die with a Smile (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars) |
-550 |
85% |
| Guess (Charlie XCX ft. Billie Eilish) |
+750 |
12% |
| Beyonce (Beyonce ft. Post Malone) |
+1100 |
8% |
| Us (Gracie Abrams ft. Taylor Swift) |
+1600 |
6% |
| The Boy in Mine (Ariana Grande, Brandy and Monica) |
+2600 |
4% |
This one is definitely a small bet for me, but one more out of intrigue. Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars are too short in my opinion, especially when Charli XCX and Billie Eilish could be on for a big night across other categories. I think +750 is good enough here to take a risk and go against the favorites.
Grammy Awards odds: Who decides the winners?
If you’re putting money down on your Grammy Awards 2025 predictions, then you’re probably going to want to know how the winners are decided. It’s actually pretty simple.
After initial submissions there are various stages of voting to get through and a review by screening committee to get to the stage we’re at now; the final nominations. There is then a final round of voting for all Academy voting members.
Voters are guided to vote only in the fields in which they are peers of the nominees. The idea here is it brings more expertise and fairness to the voting process. The votes are then counted by an independent firm (Deloitte & Touche LLP) before the winners are announces at the Grammy Awards.
Grammy Awards Song of the Year Previous winners
I have spent hours looking at the past winners to try and uncover some sort of pattern in voting or winners to help inform my own Grammy Awards predictions, but it’s proven very difficult. However, I have listed the previous Grammy Awards winners below if you want to try and uncover something for yourself.
Grammy Awards Song of the Year Previous winners
| Year |
Winner |
| 2024 |
What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) |
| 2023 |
Just Like That (Bonnie Raitt) |
| 2022 |
Leave The Door Open (Silk Sonic) |
| 2021 |
I Can’t Breathe (H.E.R) |
| 2020 |
Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) |
Grammy Awards Record of the Year Previous winners
| Year |
Winner |
| 2024 |
Flowers (Miley Cyrus) |
| 2023 |
About Damn Time (Lizzo) |
| 2022 |
Leave The Door Open (Silk Sonic) |
| 2021 |
Everything I Wanted (Billie Eilish) |
| 2020 |
Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) |
Grammy Awards Album of the Year Previous winners
| Year |
Winner |
| 2024 |
Midnights (Taylor Swift) |
| 2023 |
Harrys House (Harry Styles) |
| 2022 |
We Are (Jon Batiste) |
| 2021 |
Folklore (Taylor Swift) |
| 2020 |
When We Fall Asleep Where Do We Go? (Billie Eilish) |
Grammy Awards Best New Artist Previous winners
| Year |
Winner |
| 2024 |
Victoria Monet |
| 2023 |
Samara Joy |
| 2022 |
Olivia Rodrigo |
| 2021 |
Mega Thee Stallion |
| 2020 |
Billie Eilish |
Grammy odds 2025 FAQs
Who is the favorite to win at the Grammy Awards 2025?
The most likely winners of the headline awards based on the Grammy Awards odds are Billie Eilish for Album of the Year, Sabrina Carpenter for Record of the Year, Billie Eilish for Song of the Year, and Chappell Roan for Best New Artist.
Who is the favorite to win Song of the Year at the Grammy Awards?
Birds of a Feather by Billie Eilish is currently the favorite to win Song of the Year based on the Grammy Awards 2025 odds. The song has odds of -180 to win the award which equates to 64% probability.
Who is the favorite to win Record of the Year at the Grammy Awards?
Espresso by Sabrina Carpenter is leading the Grammy Awards odds for the Record of the Year market. The record has odds of -430 to win the award, which is an implied probability of 81%.
Who is the favorite to win Album of the Year at the Grammy Awards?
The current leader in the Grammy Awards odds for the Album of the Year is Hit Me Hard and Soft by Billie Eilish. The album has a 55% likelihood of winning the award based on odds of -120.
Who is the favorite to win Best New Artist at the Grammy Awards?
Chappell Roan is a very short -550 in the Best New Artist category for this years Grammy Awards. These odds are the equivalent of 85% implied probability that she will win the award.
Where are the 2025 Grammy Awards held?
The 2025 Grammys will take place at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. They will be hosted by Trevor Noah and be broadcast on CBS and Paramount+ in the US.
*Odds accurate as of January 30
