Oscars 2024 Best Picture Odds and Predictions
The Oscars, a.k.a. The Academy Awards, are the most prestigious awards in the film industry. Best Picture is the most sought-after accolade, with Best Director also highly esteemed. This year will be the 96th Academy Awards, and it will reward the cream of the crop from the last year's film entries.
Read the latest expert insights on the 2025 Oscar Odds in our latest Oddspedia Insights analysis
In this guide, we’ll explain everything you need to know about betting on the Best Picture and Best Director categories. You’ll find details about the various contenders to help inform your betting decisions. And at the end, there’s a handy FAQ section to answer any queries you might have.
96th Academy Award for Best Picture nominations
If you’re thinking about betting on the 96th Academy Awards this year, you’ll need to know which films are in the running. In this section, you’ll find some key details about the Best Picture Nominees. You’ll also find the average odds for each selection. This will give you an idea of how likely it is that each film will win.
American Fiction
Monk, a disillusioned writer, becomes increasingly frustrated with the exploitative nature of the entertainment industry that perpetuates offensive stereotypes. Taking matters into his own hands, he anonymously creates a provocative and unconventional Black novel, immersing himself in a world of hypocrisy and insanity that he aims to expose.
Cord Jefferson's debut as a director received five Oscar nominations: Jeffrey Wright for Best Actor, Sterling K. Brown for Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Score.
Anatomy of a Fall
Anatomy of a Fall delves into the depths of a destructive marriage with a chilling mix of psychological thrills. After the husband of a renowned writer falls to his death, a murder investigation unfolds into a gripping exploration of secrets, deception, and the haunting truth behind their secluded chalet.
This Palme d'Or winner has five Oscar nominations, with Sandra Hüller nominated for Best Actress and Justine Triet for Best Director.
Barbie
Barbie is a delightful adventure that follows the iconic doll's journey as she discovers her true potential, teaching the power of imagination, friendship, and self-acceptance.
Despite receiving eight nominations, the news highlights Academy snubs to Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, who did not secure Best Director and Best Actress nominations.
The Holdovers
The Holdovers portrays the heartwarming tale of a grumpy teacher who stays at a New England prep school during the Christmas break to care for a group of students without plans. Through unexpected connections with a troubled prodigy and the grieving mother of a fallen soldier, their bond strengthens, showcasing the transformative power of compassion and shared experiences.
The Holdovers received five Academy Award Nominations, including Best Actor for Paul Giamatti and Best Supporting Actress for Da'Vine Joy Randolph.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Killers of the Flower Moon is a gripping crime drama based on a true story, unraveling the harrowing tale of a series of murders targeting the Osage Native Americans in the early 20th century.
Martin Scorsese's tenth nomination for Best Director (having won one for The Departed) is among the ten Oscar nominations this movie has attracted. Notably, Lily Gladstone became the first Native American nominated in the Best Actress category.
Maestro
Maestro is an inspiring biographical drama that chronicles the life of renowned conductor Leonard Bernstein as he overcomes personal and professional obstacles and leaves a lasting impact on the music world.
This movie has received seven Oscar nominations, including two for Bradley Cooper, Best Actor and Original Screenplay, which he co-wrote with Josh Singer. Cooper, who also directed the film, failed to secure a nod from the Academy.
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer is a compelling historical drama that delves into the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the brilliant scientist who created the atomic bomb, exploring the moral dilemmas and consequences of his work.
Director Christopher Nolan's epic leads the pack with 13 nominations. It is the favorite for the Best Picture Oscar after winning in the same category at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, and Robert Downey Jr. were nominated for acting awards, and Nolan was nominated for Best Director.
Past Lives
Past Lives follows the poignant story of Nora and Hae Sung, childhood friends torn apart when Nora's family moves from South Korea. Two decades later, their paths converge again, reigniting a week filled with love, destiny, and profound revelations.
Celine Song's feature directorial debut has garnered two nominations for the 2024 Oscars for Best Picture and Original Screenplay.
Poor Things
Revived by an unconventional scientist, a young woman embarks on a thrilling escapade with a lawyer, traversing continents. Unencumbered by societal constraints, she finds strength in championing equality and liberation, shaping a compelling tale of resilience and determination.
The film received 11 nominations, including Best Director for Yorgos Lanthimos and Best Actress for Emma Stone.
The Zone of Interest
The Zone of Interest is a compelling historical drama set in a concentration camp during World War II, exploring the complex relationships and moral dilemmas faced by characters caught amid unimaginable atrocities.
Director Jonathan Glazer has made Oscars history as the first to be nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and International Feature Film.
Voting on the Best Picture at the Oscars
The Best Picture category uses a unique voting system called preference voting, where members rank the movies in order of preference. The votes are then tallied, and the movie with the most number one votes is determined as the winner.
To win, a movie must receive more than 50% of the first-place votes. It's important to note that achieving over 50% of the first-place votes is a rare occurrence and usually results in close races. This voting system is different from the others in the awards ceremony, where each member only votes for one winner in each category.
Betting on the Best Picture at the Academy Awards
Betting on the Best Picture winner at the Academy Awards is similar to traditional sports betting. It involves predicting the outcome of an event. However, there are some differences in the way the market operates.
There are ways to handicap the market and improve your odds of winning. It's important to stay up to date with the latest news, trends, and industry developments. This means following the film industry and paying attention to which movies are being talked about and which ones are generating buzz. You should also monitor the odds offered by different bookmakers.
Odds comparison can be very useful in betting on the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. By comparing the odds offered by different bookmakers, you can get a sense of which movie is the favorite and which ones are considered long shots. This information can help you make an informed decision when placing your bets.
It's also a good idea to keep an eye on industry awards and festivals, such as the Golden Globes and the Sundance Film Festival, as they can provide valuable insight into the potential winners and help you predict the outcome of the Oscars.
Academy Awards Best Director winner prediction
After Best Picture, the Best Director category is the most prestigious. This award attracts a lot of betting activity, and there are various filmmakers who could claim it. Here are the favorites to win the award with their odds listed:
- Jonathan Glazer, for The Zone of Interest - +2500
- Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things- +1400
- Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer - -3333
- *Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon - +1400
- Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall - +1600
It’s clear from the odds that Christopher Nolan is the standout favorite. The Oppenheimer director is odds-on to pick up the accolade. In the world of betting, it’s unwise to go against the favorite if the odds are this short.
Recent Best Picture winners
When thinking about which film could win Best Picture this year, it’s helpful to look back at the past winners. The last three winners of the lucrative award are Everything Everywhere All at Once, CODA, and Nomadland.
Remember, that the award ceremony each year rewards pictures from the previous year. For example, CODA won at the Academy Awards event in 2022. However, it was chosen from a selection of the best pictures from 2021.
2023 - Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Asian film led the ceremony with eleven nominations and seven wins, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actress.
2022 - CODA
Sian Heder’s CODA is an English remake of the 2014 French-Belgian offering, La Famille Bélier, about a child from a family of deaf adults who dreams of becoming a singer. The picture was lauded for its use of deaf actors and American Sign Language.
2021 - Nomadland
Nomadland is Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Jessica Bruder’s Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century. In the picture, Frances McDormand plays a widow who decides to get in her van and travel around the USA as a nomad.
2020 - Parasite
Parasite won numerous accolades at the 92nd Academy Awards, including Best Director for Bong Joon-ho. The black comedy thriller was the first ever non-English-language film to win Best Picture.
Academy Awards Best Picture betting FAQ
Which movie will win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars?
Nobody knows which movie will win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars, but many experts are predicting that Oppenheimer will pick up the coveted accolade.
What are the only three movies (so far) to win the Big Five Oscars?
The Big Five Oscars refers to the five major categories at the Academy Awards. These are Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay (Original or Adapted). The three films that have won all of these are: It Happened One Night in 1934, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest in 1976, and The Silence of the Lambs in 1991.
Which is the best sportsbook to bet on the Best Picture category at the Oscars?
We recommend a range of US sportsbooks that offer odds on the Best Picture category at the Oscars. You can look through the options and choose those that suits you best. For example, you may want to select a site based on the offers available or the payment methods it accepts.
Where do you find the best betting lines for Oscar Best Picture Betting?
Prior to the Oscars, we’ll give you a rundown of all the sites that offer markets for the prestigious event. This will include recommendations from our experts about where to find the best betting lines for Best Picture.
What movies were nominated for Best Picture in 2023?
At the 2023 Oscars, there were ten nominations. These included
- Everything Everywhere All at Once – Winner
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle of Sadness
- Women Talking
