Premier League Best Bets: Stuart Brown’s EPL Tips for Matchweek 12

As Matchweek 12 draws near, the UK’s top Oddspedia tipster Stuart Brown is back, and he has broken down the latest Premier League odds to deliver his top betting picks and analysis for this weekend’s fixtures – highlighting the strongest value opportunities across the weekend.

I’ve included another loss for the Premier League’s bottom side, a 6/1 accumulator, and a 9/2 Arsenal vs Spurs Bet Builder as part of my Premier League best bets today, so let’s dive into my analysis…

Premier League Best Bets for Saturday, 22nd November

Matchweek 11 delivered its share of Premier League drama, but following the international break focus now turns to this weekend. Here are my latest Premier League best bets and expert insights for Saturday’s fixtures:

Newcastle vs Manchester City – Erling Haaland to Score Anytime (5/6 with Betfred)

The bookmakers keep offering a good price on Haaland to score, so I’ll keep backing it. The runaway Premier League top scorer odds favourite has scored in all but two games for club and country this season, and scored a brace in both Norway’s World Cup qualifiers over the break. He is way out in front in both the Premier League top scorer (14) and expected goals (11.36) charts, and I’m banking on him to find the net again on Saturday.

Premier League Accumulator Tips for Saturday, 22nd November (6/1 with Coral) 💎 Hot Pick

I’ve put together a 6/1 Premier League accumulator with Coral as part of my Premier League best bets for this Saturday’s action:

Burnley vs Chelsea – Chelsea Win

Before the international break Chelsea were building up a head of steam, picking up seven wins in nine matches in all competitions. Burnley did manage to secure two recent wins against relegation rivals Wolves and Leeds, but those are their only victories since August. Chelsea present a much tougher test, and I can’t see past them beating Burnley in the early kick-off.

Bournemouth vs West Ham – Bournemouth Win

Bournemouth have lost two Premier League matches in a row to City and Villa, but now embark on a much kinder fixture run starting with the visit of West Ham. The Hammers have statistically by far the worst away defensive record in the league (13.66 xG), whilst Bournemouth have the best home defensive record (2.30 xG). I expect Bournemouth to put their recent struggles behind them with a victory here to form part of my Premier League accumulator tips.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest – Liverpool Win

Liverpool may have lost 3-0 to City last time out, but before that they looked to be back to their old selves with impressive home wins over Aston Villa and Real Madrid. On the other hand, Forest have improved under new manager Sean Dyche, but are still without an away win this season and still sit 19th in the table. It’s difficult to bet against Liverpool returning to winning ways, so I’ve backed a home win in this matchup.

Wolverhampton vs Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace Win

Premier League relegation odds favourites Wolves have picked up just one point from five home matches so far, and are on a five match losing streak in all competitions. They host an in-form Palace side who have seven points from their last three Premier League matches, conceding no goals in the process. I can’t see where Wolves’ next win is coming from, and I’m backing a Palace win here as part of my Premier League best bets

If you are interested in more accumulator predictions, then check out our football accumulator tips page which we update multiple times a week.

Premier League Best Bets for Sunday, 23rd November

Here are my EPL best bets on Sunday and the reasoning behind them:

Leeds vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa Win and Both Teams to Score (4/1 with BetVictor)

Villa seem to have shaken off some early season rust with eight wins in ten across all competitions, but they are a better team at home and have conceded in four of five away games in the league. They visit a Leeds side on Sunday whose early season form has fallen away, winning just once in six league matches. Leeds have performed admirably at home, failing to score just once, so even though I think they will lose I expect them to at least get on the scoresheet.

Arsenal vs Spurs: Premier League Bet Builder Tips, 4:30 PM (9/2 with Betway)

The North London derby is set to be a thriller, and I’ve compiled my Premier League Bet Builder tips below coming in at 9/2 with Betway:

Arsenal Win

Premier League winner odds favourites Arsenal are looking to bounce back after dropping points at Sunderland in Matchweek 11. Before that they had picked up 10 wins in a row in all competitions, and are unbeaten in Premier League North London derbies on their own patch since 2010. I’m banking on them to extend that run with a win on Sunday.

Bukayo Saka to Score Anytime

Saka’s form has picked up of late, scoring on his previous three starts for club and country. He is also Arsenal’s designated penalty taker, so he has multiple routes to registering goals. Despite their strength in depth, Saka is still Arsenal’s talisman, and I’m backing him to step up on the big occasion.

Under 10.5 Corners

Our new SmartBet tool delivers data-driven predictions to support smarter betting choices, and I’ve picked one of its standout selections for today’s Premier League Bet Builder tips.

Historical head-to-head data shows that neither team is reliant on bombarding the wings, leading to a generally lower corner count. Both teams are likely to prioritise possession and defensive solidity, supporting the prediction of fewer than 10.5 corners.

Unsure on what a bet builder is? We’ve got you covered with our comprehensive Bet Builder tips for beginners article!

Premier League Best Bets for Monday, 24th November

See below for my Premier League best bets on Monday and why I’ve chosen it:

Manchester United vs Everton – Manchester United Win (3/4 with bet365)

Manchester United have been rejuvenated of late, going unbeaten in five and winning their previous four home games in the league. Conversely, Everton have struggled on their travels, winning just once away to the Premier League’s bottom side Wolves. I’m opting for a home win here to round off this week’s Premier League best bets.

Premier League schedule this week

Premier League best bets: How to find value in the markets?

It takes time to hone your skills and learn how to assess odds and make winning tips, especially in efficient markets like the Premier League. I have outlined the three most important things to start with when trying to make your own successful football tips.

Data is king

If you were betting over a decade ago, maybe the eye test and your knowledge of teams and players would be enough to find value in the Premier League betting markets. Not anymore. You are competing against betting sites and bettors with very advanced models that are picking off any value there is as soon as lines are up. Anyone who is winning long-term with Premier League betting is using data.

The key for me is not just using data, but the right data. Around five years ago, there was a real advantage with using expected goals (xG) instead of actual goal data. Then, when VAR came along, penalty data and match time data was a great way to get some value in goals markets. You just have to focus on how the game is changing, what impact this will have on results or in-game events, and uncover the data that can help you use that to your advantage.

Split the season up for when it’s best to bet

I have had the same approach to fixture analysis for as long as I can remember. The start of the season and the Christmas period are always the hardest to navigate. This is when unpredictability is at its highest.

The first batch of fixtures of the season that come before the international break are really a warm-up for what is to come. Players are still lacking fitness, new signings are still bedding in, and new teams in the league can be somewhat of a surprise package.

The Christmas fixture period is great because of all the games, but it can be a nightmare to bet on. You can never tell when key players are going to be rested, injuries become a real part of your team assessment, and there is barely any time in between games to make your adjustments.

For the reasons mentioned above, I tend to bet a little less in the early part of the season and across the festive period. I find September to November and April to May to be some of my most profitable months. My models seem to have a great grasp of probability in that early part of the season, and towards the end you can really take advantage of situational factors where teams either have a lot or a little to play for.

Always take the best odds

It may seem obvious but not every will shop to find the best line. In my mind, it doesn’t matter if you’re better £5 or £500, you should always maximise your return by taking the best odds available. This means shopping around at the best bookmakers to find the best price. Even if I’m out of the house I will make sure I have a scan through all the best sports betting apps to check the lines before confirming my bet.

It might not make a huge difference on a single wager, but when you look back over five years you could easily earn yourself an extra few thousand British pound just for taking an extra five or ten seconds on each bet.

Premier League best bets FAQs

What are the best Premier League bets for Matchweek 12?

Stuart Brown’s best Premier League bets for Matchweek 12 are: Erling Haaland to Score Anytime (vs. Newcastle), Aston Villa Win and BTTS (vs Leeds), and Manchester United Win (vs Everton).

What are the best Premier League accumulator tips for Matchweek 12?

For Matchweek 12, our expert Stuart Brown has compiled his best Premier League accumulator tips for Saturday’s fixtures, with total odds of 6/1 at Coral. Here is a breakdown of his picks: Chelsea Win (vs Burnley), Bournemouth Win (vs West Ham), Liverpool Win (vs Nottingham Forest), and Crystal Palace Win (vs Wolverhampton).

What betting lines should I consider for an Arsenal vs Spurs Bet Builder?

Here are our top Premier League Bet Builder tips from our expert Stuart Brown for Sunday’s showdown between Arsenal and Spurs, with a possible payout of 9/2.

• Arsenal Win – 17/40 (1.43)
• Bukayo Saka To Score Anytime – 7/4 (2.75)
• Under 10.5 Corner – 17/20 (1.85)

How do you make winning Premier League tips?

Different people will have different strategies to make Premier League tips. I put a lot of my success down to data and always thinking of ways to stay ahead of the market. Utilising new metrics and adjusting to rule changes are two examples of ways I have been able to make winning Premier League tips.

Where can you find the best Premier League bets?

You will see a lot of people online advertising the best Premier League bets, but you have to let people’s record speak for itself. Oddspedia’s community has a lot of knowledge you can use to your advantage, and all the picks submitted to Oddspedia are tracked so you can see who has the best record and follow their bets.

Which Premier League prediction site is best?

I personally think Oddspedia has it all when it comes to being the best site for Premier League predictions. It has individual experts, in-depth analysis, community tips, computer tips, consensus tips. It gives you all the data you need to make your own informed decisions.