MLB Manager of the Year Odds And Predictions 2024: Quataro Is Still The Favorite In The AL

MLB Manager of the Year odds - © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
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Matt Quatraro and Pat Murphy have a lot in common.

Both are neophyte MLB managers for teams that play in the Central division (Quatraro with the Kansas City Royals, Murphy with the Milwaukee Brewers). 

Both failed to reach the big leagues as players following undistinguished minor league careers. 

And both are pretty much unknown and unrecognizable outside of their own homes and clubhouses.

Oh, and one more similarity: Two months into the 2024 MLB season, Quatraro and Murphy have the shortest 2024 MLB Manager of the Year odds in the American League and National League, respectively.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that Quatraro and Murphy will still share this particular commonality by the time the season concludes in late September. For now, though, there isn’t much in the way of competition behind them.

Here’s a look at updated MLB Manager of the Year odds from the best sportsbooks, including a breakdown of our top three favorites and two long shots based on wagering value.

Manager of the Year odds 2024

As with other MLB futures markets such as MLB MVP odds, Cy Young odds, and Rookie of the Year odds, MLB Manager of the Year odds fluctuate throughout the long 162-game season. 

These fluctuations are primarily based on how a manager’s team is performing compared with preseason expectations. 

For instance, a skipper whose team gets off to a hot start will see his Manager of the Year odds shrink. Conversely, if a projected playoff contender stumbles out of the gate, the manager will tumble down the odds board.

Many times, these odds shift happen quickly — and this season has been no different.

One key tip when examining the in-season MLB Manager of the Year odds market: Focus not so much on a manager’s current won-loss record per se, but rather if that record is catching most baseball experts by surprise.

AL Manager of the Year odds

Manager Odds
Matt Quatraro (Royals) +170
Stephen Vogt (Guardians) +240
Brandon Hyde (Orioles) +850
A.J. Hinch (Tigers) +850
Aaron Boone (Yankees) +1500
Rocco Baldelli (Twins) +1500
Scott Servais (Mariners) +2000
Alex Cora (Red Sox) +2300
Bruce Bochy (Rangers) +3000
Mark Kotsay (A’s) +3000
Kevin Cash (Rays) +3200
Ron Washington (Angels) +7500
John Schneider (Blue Jays) +7500
Joey Espada (Astros) +9000
Pedro Grifol (White Sox) +10000

AL Manager of the Year odds courtesy of FanDuel – accurate as of May 30

NL Manager of the Year odds

Manager Odds
Pat Murphy (Brewers) +195
Rob Thomson (Phillies) +340
Craig Counsell (Cubs) +500
Mike Shildt (Padres) +1200
Bob Melvin (Giants) +1700
Oliver Marmol (Cardinals) +1700
Derek Shelton (Pirates) +1700
David Bell (Reds) +2000
Torey Lovullo (Diamondbacks) +2000
Dave Roberts (Dodgers) +2000
Carlos Mendoza (Mets) +2000
Brian Sknitker (Braves) +2000
Skip Schumaker (Marlins) +6000
Dave Martinez (Nationals) +6000
Bud Black (Rockies) +6000

NL Manager of the Year odds courtesy of FanDuel – accurate as of May 30

MLB Manager of the Year favorites

Craig Counsell (Cubs): +500

The current Manager of the Year odds discrepancy between Milwaukee’s Murphy and first-year Chicago Cubs skipper Craig Counsell suggests there’s a significant gulf separating these NL Central rivals in the standings.

Newsflash: There isn’t.

Chicago and Milwaukee have been swapping keys in the NL Central penthouse for most of the season. And while the Brewers (31-23) entered Wednesday’s home game against the Cubs (28-27) with a 3.5-game lead, it’s hardly insurmountable with four months remaining.

Beyond the fair +500 price, Counsell has managerial pedigree. He was Milwaukee’s skipper for nine years before crossing the Wisconsin-Illinois border in the offseason. And the Brewers posted four first-place finishes and three second-place finishes across the final seven of those seasons.

If the Cubs’ dormant offense heats up over the summer, and rookie pitching sensation Shota Imanaga continues to look like the second coming of Greg Maddux, Chicago could easily win its first NL Central title in a full 162-game season since 2017.

If that were to happen, Counsell absolutely would be in the mix for his first Manager of the Year award.

Brandon Hyde (Orioles): +850

Quatraro deserves to be the definitive favorite to win AL Manager of the Year. After all, the calendar still says May and the second-year skipper has already guided Kansas City to 34 victories — which is just 22 fewer than the Royals posted in all of 2023.

Likewise, it’s impossible to argue with Cleveland’s Steven Vogt being the second choice to win AL Manager of the Year. Vogt, who took over for legendary manager Terry Francona in the offseason, had the Guardians sitting at 37-18 heading into Wednesday’s action — good for the best record in the American League and second best in all of baseball.

So why not recommend betting Quatraro or Vogt to win AL Manager of the Year? Because the wagering value for both has vanished.

During the first week of April, Vogt and Quatraro had odds of +750 and +850, respectively. Even as recently as a month ago, Vogt was at +450 and Quatraro was at +380.

In other words, bettors who didn’t jump on either skipper a few weeks ago have missed the boat (for the moment, anyway).

That’s not the case, however, with Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde. The reigning AL Manager of the Year had his team 15 games over .500 as of Wednesday (34-19) and just 1.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East standings.

Barring major injuries, the Orioles will be duking it out with the Yankees throughout the dog days of summer. If Baltimore wins the fight — and if the Royals and Guardians fall back — Hyde will have a legitimate shot to become just the third repeat Manager of the Year winner in either league.

Throw in a juicy +850 price, and Hyde is worth a roll of the dice right now.

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Manager of the Year long shots

Aaron Boone (Yankees): +1500

The first two months of the 2024 season have been much more enjoyable for everyone associated with the Yankees than any of the six months of the 2023 campaign.

And nobody could be more relieved than Boone, who took a lot of heat for last year’s stunning 82-80 record and fourth-place finish in the AL East. 

Thanks to a scalding-hot opening two weeks to this season, New York reached late May at 37-19 and alone atop the division standings. 

The main reason for the turnaround? Pitching. In fact, New York’s 2.80 team ERA is by far the best in baseball (Philadelphia is a distant second at 3.08). The most impressive part about that ERA? Staff ace — and 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner — Gerrit Cole has yet to throw a pitch as he continues to recover from a spring-training arm injury.

If Cole returns and is anywhere near top form over the second half of the season — and if slugger Aaron Judge (17 home runs and an MLB-best 1.029 OPS) continues to carry an underperforming offense — New York could flirt with 100 wins.

Since, like usual, much was expected of the Yankees entering this season, they probably would need to hit that century-win plateau for Boone to snag his first Manager of the Year award. 

However, it’s not far-fetched, especially given how top-heavy the AL has been. So taking a 15-to-1 flier on Boone ain’t a bad investment.

Brian Snitker (Braves): +2000

Atlanta was dealt a massive blow on May 26, when right fielder and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña tore his ACL in a non-contact baserunning injury.

It goes without saying that replacing a five-tool, generational talent like Acuña is impossible. He will be sorely missed at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths.

Still, we already know the NL East is going to be a two-team race — and that one of the two teams is the Braves.

Obviously, without Acuña, it won’t be easy for Atlanta to overtake Philadelphia, which came into Wednesday with an MLB-best 38-18 record and a five-game division lead. But the bitter rivals still have 10 head-to-head meetings on the docket, giving the Braves ample opportunities to make up ground.

Also, the Phillies’ record smells a bit fraudulent. During a recent 23-5 stretch, Philadelphia faced eight opponents, seven of which are currently under .500 — including five currently sitting in last place.

As the schedule toughens, the Phillies will come back to earth. And Atlanta will be right there waiting to catch and pass them.

Now imagine if the Braves do just that and win a seventh consecutive NL East title — and second with an injured Acuña missing most of the season. Think Atlanta manager Brian Snitker might get some NL Manager of the Year love?

We sure do. Which is why backing Snitker to win Manager of the Year at 20-to-1 odds is a much better bet than Atlanta to win the NL East at +165.

MLB Manager of the Year trends

Want to cash a winning Manager of the Year ticket this season? Identify under-the-radar teams that have a legitimate shot at playing meaningful October baseball.

  • Only 12.2% of all Manager of the Year awards — 10 of 82 — have gone to skippers whose teams failed to reach the playoffs. And only once has the honor gone to a manager whose club finished below .500 (Joe Girardi of the 78-win Marlins in 2006).
  • Not counting the 2020 season that was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic, only three of the last 24 Manager of the Year plaques have gone to skippers whose teams finished with fewer than 90 wins. Those winners: the Rangers’ Jeff Bannister in 2015 (88 wins), the Twins’ Paul Molitor in 2017 (85 wins), and the Marlins’ Schumaker last season (84 wins).
  • Since 2019, at least one Manager of the Year has posted 100 or more victories (again, discounting 2020). However, in 17 previous seasons — from 2002-2018 — not a single Manager of the Year recipient in either league hit or surpassed the century mark.
  • In fact, only 14.6% of all Manager of the Year honorees — 12 of 82 — have won the award following a 100-win season.

Our best MLB Manager of the Year betting sites

Take a look at our comprehensive list of best MLB betting sites in order to get the best MLB odds on all of your wagers.

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Want more MLB insights?

Looking for more ways to make more informed MLB wagers? Take a look at our other articles from our Oddspedia experts:

Manager of the Year odds FAQs

Who is favorite to be Manager of the Year 2024?

Matt Quatraro of the Kansas City Royals is currently favored to win AL Manager of the Year. In the NL, Pat Murphy of the Brewers is the favorite to take home the award.

Who was Manager of the Year in 2023?

Baltimore Orioles’ Brandon Hyde took home Manager of the Year in the AL in 2023, while Miami Marlins’ Skip Schumaker took home the hardware in the NL.

How are Manager of the Year odds determined?

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America votes to determine the top manager in each league. Prior to the start of the postseason, members submit their ballots, which utilize a weighted points system to determine the winners.

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