MLB Manager of the Year Odds and Predictions 2026: Veneble and Murphy Take Home Top Skip Honors

The 2026 MLB regular season is officially in the books, bringing the American League and National League Manager of the Year races into sharper focus. The MLB Manager of the Year odds have shifted considerably throughout the season, with several managers exceeding preseason expectations and leading their teams into the postseason.

MLB Manager of the Year odds and predictions

Here’s a breakdown of each winner’s MLB Manager of the Year odds profile and what percent of the vote they received.

Keep checking back throughout the offseason and we’ll have you covered as the 2027 MLB Manager of the Year odds market takes shape – unless there’s a lockout, as suggested in our MLB Lockout odds. If not, you can make your wagers next year at the best sportsbooks, and be sure to check the best MLB odds.

⚾ AL Manager of the Year Odds

Manager	Current Odds	Preseason	Implied Prob. (Current)
Will Venable	-135	+2500	57.45%
Kevin Cash	+115	+1300	46.51%
Stephen Vogt	+1600	+700	5.88%
Chad Tracy	+2500	N/A	3.85%
Aaron Boone	+6000	+2200	1.64%
A.J. Hinch	N/A	+900	—
Dan Wilson	N/A	+450	—
Joe Espada	N/A	+2200	—
Skip Schumaker	N/A	+1300	—
Derek Shelton	N/A	+2200	—
Craig Albernaz	N/A	+700	—
Mark Kotsay	N/A	+1300	—
John Schneider	N/A	+700	—
Matt Quatraro	N/A	+1600	—
Kurt Suzuki	N/A	+4000	—

⚾ NL Manager of the Year Odds

Manager	Current Odds	Preseason	Implied Prob. (Current)
Pat Murphy	-310	+900	75.61%
Walt Weiss	+275	+700	26.67%
Craig Stammen	+2000	+1000	4.76%
Don Mattingly	+2200	N/A	4.35%
Torey Lovullo	+2200	+2500	4.35%
Craig Counsell	+3300	+700	2.94%
Dave Roberts	+7500	+1000	1.32%
Clayton McCullough	N/A	+1000	—
Oliver Marmol	N/A	+2500	—
Don Kelly	N/A	+750	—
Blake Butera	N/A	+1400	—
Terry Francona	N/A	+900	—
Tony Vitello	N/A	+1400	—
Andy Green	N/A	N/A	—
Warren Schaeffer	N/A	+8000	—

Odds via bet365 – accurate as of October 27

MLB Manager of the Year odds: AL and NL winners

Will Veneble | -135 odds to win AL Manager of the Year (to end the season)

Will Venable won the 2026 AL Manager of the Year Award after leading the Chicago White Sox to one of the most impressive turnarounds in MLB history. He received 15 of 30 first-place votes (50%), finishing with 111 points to edge Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash (98). In his second season as manager, Venable guided Chicago to an 84-78 record and its first postseason appearance since 2021, a remarkable improvement after the team lost 102 games in 2025 and a modern-era record 121 in 2024.

The White Sox also spent 96 days atop the AL Central and became the first team to reach the playoffs after suffering consecutive 100-loss seasons. Their progress continued in October, when Chicago swept Houston in the Wild Card Series and won the first two games of its ALDS against Cleveland.

Pat Murphy | -310 odds to win NL Manager of the Year (to end the season)

Pat Murphy won the 2026 NL Manager of the Year Award, making history as the first manager to claim the honor in three consecutive seasons. He received 20 of 30 first-place votes (66.7%), earning 124 points to comfortably beat runner-up Walt Weiss (86). Murphy guided the Milwaukee Brewers to a franchise-record 103 wins and the best regular-season record in MLB (103-59), despite injuries to key pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester. Milwaukee also relied heavily on inexperienced pitching, with a rookie starting 80 of its 162 games.

The Brewers carried that success into October, winning their first World Series championship in franchise history. Murphy’s ability to maintain consistency, develop young talent, and navigate injuries helped secure another award, despite the possibility of voter fatigue after his previous two victories.

MLB Manager of the Year Odds: AL and NL Finalists

The 2026 MLB Manager of the Year finalists represented six different paths to success, from historic team turnarounds to unexpected division titles. Will Venable and Pat Murphy ultimately won the awards, but Kevin Cash, Chad Tracy, Don Mattingly, and Walt Weiss also had compelling cases.

American League Manager of the Year

• Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays): Cash led Tampa Bay to a 98-64 record and the AL East title after preseason projections had the Rays finishing fifth. His team also secured the American League’s top postseason seed.
• Chad Tracy (Boston Red Sox): Named interim manager after Alex Cora’s dismissal, Tracy helped Boston recover from a 32-46 start. The Red Sox went 77-58 under his leadership to earn a Wild Card berth.

National League Manager of the Year

• Don Mattingly (Philadelphia Phillies): Mattingly replaced Rob Thomson when Philadelphia was 9-19 and struggling through a 10-game losing streak. He turned the season around, leading the Phillies to 88 wins and a postseason berth.
• Walt Weiss (Atlanta Braves): Weiss won the NL East in his first season managing Atlanta, guiding the Braves to 94 wins despite significant injuries. His leadership helped the team maintain its division lead throughout the season.

Manager of the Year odds 2026

The MLB Manager of the Year odds market opens prior to spring training. As with other MLB futures options — MLB MVP odds, Cy Young odds, Comeback Player of the Year odds, and World Series champion — 2026 MLB Manager of the Year odds fluctuate throughout the long 162-game campaign based on team over-performance and narrative shifts.

💸 MLB Manager of the Year odds 2026: Betting strategy tips

The MLB Manager of the Year odds market opens prior to spring training. As with other MLB futures options — MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and World Series champion — MLB Manager of the Year odds fluctuate throughout the long 162-game campaign.

Early on, this fluidity is primarily the result of how a manager’s team performs compared with preseason expectations.

For instance, a skipper whose ballclub is pegged as a bottom dweller but instead gets off to a hot start will see his Manager of the Year odds shrink.

So if you’re thinking about dabbling in the in-season MLB Manager of the Year futures market, remember this: Surpassing preseason prognostications usually is more important than a manager’s won-loss record.

Of course, being able to sustain that surprising success is most vital.

📈 MLB Manager of the Year betting trends

Want to cash a winning 2026 Manager of the Year ticket? Identify under-the-radar teams that have a legitimate shot at playing meaningful October baseball.

Here’s why: Only 12% of all Manager of the Year awards — 11 of 88 — have gone to skippers whose teams failed to reach the playoffs. History shows that voters almost exclusively reward postseason breakthroughs. Furthermore, only once has the honor gone to a manager whose club finished below .500 (Joe Girardi of the 78-win Marlins in 2006).

Trends to watch for the 2026 season:

The 90-Win Benchmark

Excluding the shortened 2020 season, only five of the last 30 Manager of the Year recipients have guided teams that finished with fewer than 90 wins. However, Stephen Vogt just won the 2025 AL honor with 88 wins, proving that winning a weak division can still keep a manager in the hunt.

The “Surprise” Factor

Reaching the 100-win plateau isn’t as important as exceeding expectations. Only about 14% of winners followed a 100-win season. The award usually goes to the manager who does the most with the least, rather than the one with the best overall record.

A Shift in Repeat Winners

Historically, backing last year’s winner was a losing bet. But the script has flipped: Stephen Vogt (AL) and Pat Murphy (NL) both won back-to-back honors in 2024 and 2025. This marks the first time in MLB history that both leagues had repeat winners in the same consecutive years.

The “New Manager” Bump

Voters love a fresh face. Keep an eye on first-year skippers like Craig Albernaz (BAL) or Clayton McCullough (MIA). If a new manager leads a significant win-total increase, they often become the media’s favorite narrative.

As you look at the 2026 MLB Manager of the Year odds, remember that Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt and Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy are the reigning two-time winners. While a “three-peat” would be unprecedented, they have clearly earned the voters’ trust.

Our best MLB betting sites

To make sure you get the most value on your MLB odds, go to the best MLB betting sites prior to placing your wagers throughout the regular season.

❓ Manager of the Year odds FAQs

Who is favorite to be Manager of the Year 2026?

Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers is the current favorite to win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year, while Will Venable of the Chicago White Sox leads the pack for the American League. Both managers have seen their odds surge in recent weeks and remain steady into September as their teams challenge preseason expectations and fight for early divisional leads.

Who was Manager of the Year in 2025?

Cleveland Guardians skipper Stephen Vogt took home Manager of the Year in the AL in 2024 and 2025, while Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers took home the hardware in the NL in both seasons. Both managers guided their teams to Central Division titles last season, with Murphy’s Brewers (97-65) posting a better record than Vogt’s Guardians (88-74).

How are Manager of the Year odds determined?

Votes cast by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America determine the top manager in each league. Each member that receives a ballot votes for their top three choices. A weighted points system is then used to determine the winners. Playoff success (or lack thereof) has no bearing on Manager of the Year voting, as ballots must be submitted at the conclusion of the regular season.