MLB MVP Odds 2026: PCA and Alvarez Have Best-in-League Awards Locked up

The MLB MVP odds shift throughout the season as standout performances reshape the races in both leagues. With the regular season nearing its conclusion, the National League race has effectively been decided in the betting market, with Pete Crow-Armstrong emerging as the overwhelming favorite before sportsbooks stopped offering odds.

In the American League, Yordan Alvarez remains a strong favorite with only a handful of games left on the schedule. This page tracks MLB MVP odds, key contenders and market movement at the top sportsbooks as the season progresses.

⚾ 2026 AL MVP odds

Player	MVP Odds	Implied Probability
Yordan Alvarez	-5000	98.04%
Junior Caminero	+1400	6.67%
Cam Schlittler	+4000	2.44%
Bobby Witt Jr.	+10000	0.99%
Pete Alonso	+20000	0.50%
Ben Rice	+20000	0.50%

AL MVP odds provided by bet365 – accurate as of September 16

⚾ 2026 NL MVP odds

Pete Crow-Armstrong | NL MVP winner?

Pete Crow-Armstrong has gone from contender to overwhelming favorite in the NL MVP race after an incredible second half. Through Sept. 21, the Cubs center fielder is hitting .280 with 45 homers, 107 RBIs, and a .949 OPS, while his 9.6 WAR ranks as the best in the National League.

PCA was especially hot in August, winning NL Player of the Month after hitting .280/.366/.703 with 14 homers, 28 RBIs and 29 runs.

That production explains why his MVP odds have exploded. Earlier this season, bet365 even offered an Ohtani vs. the field MVP market, underscoring how heavily Ohtani was favored. Now, PCA has flipped the race and essentially has the award won, with most sportsbooks no longer offering odds on the NL MVP market. His dominance has also given manager Craig Counsell a legitimate shot in the MLB Manager of the Year odds race.

AL MVP Favorite

Yordan Alvarez | -5000 odds to win AL MVP

Aaron Judge’s midseason injury created a wide open race in the AL MVP odds race and Yordan Alvarez was the early benefactor. The Houston Astros DH and outfielder is having a career-best year, almost single-handedly keeping the Astros alive in the World Series odds.

Alvarez, who is also one of the leaders in the MLB home run leader odds, had 40 home runs and 99 RBI through 152 games. After a disappointing year last year, he’s also the clear betting favorite in the MLB Comeback Player of the Year odds. This could truly be an historic season for the Astros slugger, especially with him having a real chance at becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012.

Alvarez has left the door slightly ajar for other contenders in the AL MVP odds race with his lack of production down the stretch. He’s hitting just .269 with 4 home runs and 8 RBI in his last 20 games.

AL MVP Sleeper Pick

Ben Rice | +20000 odds to win AL MVP

Ben Rice is an intriguing AL MVP sleeper pick after putting together a breakout season for the Yankees. Rice has launched 39 home runs and driven in 95 runs, making him a key contender in the MLB most home run odds while also giving New York a major source of power in the middle of the lineup.

His MVP case is strengthened by the circumstances surrounding his season, as Rice has helped keep the Yankees in contention while Aaron Judge has been sidelined for much of the year. Judge, who returned to the lineup on Sept. 7, was out since May 31 with a fractured rib, leaving Rice to carry more of the offensive burden. While Rice has cooled somewhat recently, his overall production and importance to the Yankees make him an appealing longshot in the AL MVP odds.

📖 How to read MLB MVP odds

Reading MLB MVP odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet. For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600.

🤔 Who decides who wins the MLB MVP Award?

The MLB MVP Award is decided by the members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). Two writers from each MLB city cast their ballots by ranking their top 10 players. Points are awarded based on their rankings to determine the AL MVP and NL MVP.

The winners of the two MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November as part of a week-long series of award reveals featuring the MLB MVP, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Cy Young Award.

💰 How to bet on the MLB MVP odds

Placing a futures bet on the MLB MVP odds is a five-step process that focuses on finding the best value.

1. Choose a Bookmaker and Compare Odds

Start by comparing MVP odds across multiple legal sportsbooks (e.g., bet365, Stake). Odds for longshot candidates can vary significantly (+2000 vs. +2500), directly impacting your potential return. Selecting the best price ensures maximum value for your bet.

2. Sign Up and Deposit Funds

Complete the online registration with the chosen bookmaker, providing necessary personal details for identity verification. When depositing funds, consider any available welcome bonuses, as these offers can effectively reduce the risk on your initial portfolio investment.

3. Locate the Futures Market

Once logged in, navigate the bookmaker’s menu to find the market. The path is typically: MLB → Futures → Regular Season Awards or Awards → AL MVP and NL MVP.

4. Select Your Bets and Enter Stakes

Identify your 3-4 preferred longshot players and click on their odds to add them to your bet slip. For each selection, enter the same wagering amount (stake) to create your diversified portfolio. It is crucial to place these as individual straight bets, not a parlay.

5. Review and Place the Bet

Before finalizing, review the bet slip to confirm the players, the locked-in odds, and the total amount risked. Once satisfied, submit the bets to secure your longshot odds for the entire MLB season.

💸 Key Betting Strategies for MLB MVP Odds

The following three strategies focus on maximizing value, managing risk and exploiting market inefficiencies across the MLB Season.

1. The Preseason Portfolio (Maximizing Odds)

The core of this strategy is maximizing initial value by placing multiple, small, diversified bets immediately after the odds are released. Your focus should be on 3 to 4 longshot players who are in situations offering high-volume opportunities (e.g., a lock as a 3 or 4 hitter heading into Spring Training or a lock as the top starting pitcher for his team). By selecting odds of +2000 or higher, you are constructing a portfolio that diversifies risk. If any one of your selections breaks out, the return on the small, pooled stake is massive.

• Example: Placing $10 on four different players —Player A (+2500), B (+4000), C (+2000), and D (+3000) results in a total risk of $40.

2. Dynamic In-Season Monitoring and Adjustment (Identifying Breakouts)

The second stage involves rigorous monitoring of your longshots during the first half of the season (April-June) to identify an odds-shortening breakout. You are tracking a sustained run of excellent production (e.g., a slugger hitting 25+ home runs in the first half of the season or a pitcher recording a dominant sub-2.00 ERA). This breakout performance will dramatically shift the market and prepare you for the third strategic step. Volume and consistency are the only metrics that matter here, as they validate the initial preseason bet.

• Example: Your $10 bet on Player B at +4000 sees their odds plummet to +300 after a dominant stretch where they lead all players in batting average, home runs or RBI, confirming their status as an award contender.

3. The Calculated Mid-Season Hedge (Guaranteeing Profit)

This final, crucial strategy is pure risk management designed to lock in a guaranteed net profit. If your initial longshot has become a top favorite, you identify their closest rival and calculate the precise stake needed to place a bet on that rival. This is the “hedge bet.” The goal is to ensure that regardless of which of the two top candidates ultimately wins the award, you walk away with a guaranteed, significant return on your small initial investment, effectively taking risk off the table late in the season.

• Example: With Player B at +300, and their rival, Player E, at +500, you calculate an $80 stake on Player E. This maneuver guarantees a net profit of at least $320 (if B wins) or $390 (if E wins), securing a massive return on your initial $40 risk.

📈 MLB MVP Betting Trends

When wagering on the MLB MVP odds or any other MLB individual award futures, it is always wise to research betting trends that have been established over the years. Here is a look at some key trends to consider before placing this season’s bets.

• The AL MVP pre-season favorite has won the award five times in the last 11 years (Judge 2025, Ohtani 2023, Mike Trout 2019, 2016, 2014). Judge is the preseason favorite this season.
• Only two players (Frank Robinson and Shohei Ohtani) have ever the MVP award in both leagues.
• An outfielder has won the NL MVP in eight of the last 11 seasons.

🏆 Previous MLB MVP winners by position

Our best MLB betting sites

To make sure you get the most value on your MLB odds, go to the best MLB betting sites prior to placing your wagers throughout the regular season.

Looking for MLB insights?

If you’re looking for expert insight on the MLB, take a look at some of our other articles:

• • MLB Prop Bets
  • MLB Reliever of the Year Odds

🏆 Previous MLB MVP Award Winners

Year	AL MVP	NL MVP
2025	Aaron Judge	Shohei Ohtani
2024	Aaron Judge	Shohei Ohtani
2023	Shohei Ohtani	Ronald Acuna Jr.
2022	Aaron Judge	Paul Goldschmidt
2021	Shohei Ohtani	Bryce Harper
2020	Jose Abreu	Freddie Freeman
2019	Mike Trout	Cody Bellinger
2018	Mookie Betts	Christian Yelich
2017	Jose Altuve	Giancarlo Stanton
2016	Mike Trout	Kris Bryant

❓ MLB MVP Odds FAQs

Who won MLB MVP in 2025?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won his third AL MVP award in 2025. Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter and right-handed pitcher Shohei Ohtani won the NL MVP award in 2025. Ohtani has won two MVP awards in the AL and two in the NL.

When will the MLB MVP award be decided?

The MLB MVP award will be voted on following the conclusion of the regular season. However, the winner won’t be announced until mid-November as part of a week-long series of award reveals featuring the MLB MVP, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Cy Young Award.

How is the MLB MVP decided?

The MLB MVP Awards are decided by the members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). Two writers from each MLB city cast their ballots by ranking their top 10 players. Points are awarded based on their rankings to determine the AL MVP and NL MVP.