The MLB Reliever of the Year odds is one of the most volatile and fascinating betting markets heading into the 2026 season.
Bullpens can swing wildly based on role clarity, team makeup and save opportunities that emerge over the 162-game season.
MLB Reliever of the Year Odds and Predictions 2026: Canadian Cade Smith Takes Lead in Tight AL Race
- An updated look at the MLB Reliever of the Year odds board
- Smith takes over lead in the AL
- Is this sleeper pick worth a +2000 wager?
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Voters tend to favor dominant closers who rack up saves while missing bats at historic levels, and Miller fits that bill perfectly...
Voters tend to reward elite closers who combine dominance with heavy usage on winning teams, but recent seasons have shown that strikeout rate, leverage and underlying metrics matter more than ever.
Make sure to maximize your baseball wagers, including the MLB Reliever of the Year odds, all season by shopping for the best MLB odds at the best sportsbooks. And remember to fill out our printable MLB playoff bracket once the regular season comes to an end.
⚾ AL Reliever of the Year odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Cade Smith |
+150 | 40.00% |
 Louis Varland |
+400 | 20.00% |
 Bryan Baker |
+500 | 16.67% |
 Aroldis Chapman |
+600 | 14.29% |
 Jacob Latz |
+800 | 11.11% |
 David Bednar |
+850 | 10.53% |
 Grant Taylor |
+2000 | 4.76% |
⚾ NL Reliever of the Year odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Mason Miller |
-200 | 66.67% |
 Jhoan Duran |
+450 | 18.18% |
 Trevor Megill |
+650 | 13.33% |
| Adrian Morejon |
+1200 | 7.69% |
 Tanner Scott |
+2000 | 4.76% |
 Dylan Lee |
+2500 | 3.85% |
| Didier Fuentes |
+4000 | 2.44% |
MLB Reliever of the Year odds accurate as of September 21
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MLB Reliever of the Year odds: Favorites
Cade Smith odds to win AL Reliever of the Year | +150
Cade Smith has been dominant in September, posting a 0.00 ERA across 10.1 innings while recording 17 strikeouts and allowing just three hits. That late-season run has helped Cleveland stay firmly in the playoff race, with the Guardians going 12-7 in September and moving into first place in the AL Central.
Smith has also become a crucial weapon at the back of Cleveland’s bullpen, earning his 37th save on Sept. 16 before another strong outing against Oakland on Sept. 20. With Cleveland’s pitching staff carrying the team into the postseason picture, Smith’s recent dominance has also coincided with improving World Series odds. That combination makes Smith a serious name to consider in the AL Reliever of the Year odds.
Mason Miller odds to win NL Reliever of the Year | -200
Mason Miller remains at the top of the National League Reliever of the Year odds, with the Padres closer continuing to pile up saves and strikeouts during a dominant 2026 campaign. Miller has now recorded 37 saves and has 10 strikeouts over his last five appearances.
Overall, Miller is 5-2 with a 1.21 ERA in 67 innings pitched this season. He has allowed just 33 hits and 23 walks, while striking out a career-best 123 batters. He also owns a career-high 3.5 WAR as of Sept. 21.
That combination of saves, strikeout production, and season-long dominance keeps Miller firmly in the NL Reliever of the Year conversation. His performance has also earned consideration in the NL Cy Young odds, while his ability to neutralize some of the game’s best hitters makes the MLB MVP odds relevant when discussing the level of competition he has faced.
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MLB Reliever of the Year odds: Contenders
Louis Varland odds to win AL Reliever of the Year | +400
Louis Varland has fallen in the MLB Reliever of the Year odds after a rough September in which he has allowed five walks, two earned runs, and taken two losses in eight appearances. However, he’s still a strong contender for the award thanks to a dominant season that has transformed the Blue Jays’ bullpen.
Since taking over the closer’s role from the now-traded Jeff Hoffman, Varland has recorded 34 saves while posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 77 innings. He was a perfect 24-for-24 in save opportunities before finally blowing one in early August.
Varland’s overall body of work is quite impressive, with 95 strikeouts and only 23 walks. His late-inning excellence for most of the season has been a major reason Toronto remains in the playoff race and why John Schneider has fallen in the next MLB manager fired odds, as Varland’s performances have helped preserve countless close victories. He has also allowed just two home runs all season, making him a tough opponent even for the leaders in MLB home run odds.
Jhoan Duran odds to win NL Reliever of the Year | +400
It may be near impossible to dethrone Mason Miller from the top of the NL Reliever of the Year odds, but Jhoan Duran continues to make a compelling case. The Phillies closer has posted a 1.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 79 strikeouts across 56.1 innings, while his 3.3 WAR ranks among the NL’s top relievers.
Duran has pitched to a 2.08 ERA across 8.2 innings in September, allowing two earned runs on four hits while striking out 11 and converting two saves. He has surrendered one home run, which came on Sept. 10 against Houston, but bounced back with consecutive scoreless appearances against Washington and the Mets.
His performance has also helped Philadelphia remain in the NL East race, with the Phillies sitting at 86-70 as of Sept. 21. That makes Duran an important piece of the team’s postseason push while keeping Don Mattingly relevant in the MLB Manager of the Year odds.
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MLB Reliever of the Year odds: Sleeper picks
Grant Taylor odds to win AL Reliever of the Year | +2000
A true sleeper in the AL Reliever of the Year odds market, Grant Taylor has quietly put together an impressive season for the White Sox. The right-hander owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 103 strikeouts across 82 innings, while his 10 saves have come as his role has grown in Chicago’s bullpen. Taylor has been particularly busy down the stretch, throwing 9.2 innings across five September appearances while allowing four earned runs and striking out nine.
He did surrender two runs in a Sept. 15 loss to Cleveland, but bounced back with 3.2 scoreless innings over his next two outings, including a four-out save against Detroit on Sept. 19. With Chicago still battling Cleveland for the AL Central lead, Taylor’s ability to handle high-leverage innings has become increasingly important.
Trevor Megill odds to win NL Reliever of the Year | +650
Trevor Megill is a legitimate sleeper in the MLB Reliever of the Year odds after putting together a remarkable turnaround with the Brewers. After struggling early in the season, Megill has become one of Milwaukee’s most dependable late-inning arms, earning NL Reliever of the Month honors for August after allowing no earned runs across 12 innings and converting all eight of his save opportunities.
Megill has continued his strong run down the stretch, recording 29 saves while posting a 2.72 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 67 strikeouts this season. Over his last 20 appearances, he has posted a 2.29 ERA with five saves and just five earned runs across 19.2 innings.
The turnaround is particularly impressive considering Megill’s ERA reached 6.00 in May before he reclaimed the closer’s role. With Milwaukee already clinching the NL Central, Megill has an opportunity to strengthen his case in the final weeks and provide value as a sleeper in the MLB Reliever of the Year odds.
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📈 MLB Reliever of the Year odds betting trends
The one thing MLB Reliever of the Year recipients have had in common through the years? Surprise, surprise: a high saves total and a low ERA.
Last year’s winners certainly fit that criteria: Boston’s Aroldis Chapman had 32 saves and a 1.17 ERA while Edwin Diaz of the New York Mets recorded 28 saves and a 1.63 ERA.
In the last 10 seasons since 2016, eight AL winners and seven NL winners had an ERA south of 2.00.
Also, going back to the 2000 campaign — but not including the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign — 37 of 49 MLB Reliever of the Year winners notched at least 40 saves. That includes both recipients in each league during an incredible 15-year run from 2000-2014.
Also since the turn of the century, seven pitchers have won MLB Reliever of the Year in back-to-back seasons.
Liam Hendriks is the last AL pitcher to pull off the feat — and he did it with two different franchises. Hendriks took home MLB Reliever of the Year in 2020 while with the Oakland A’s, then moved to the South Side of Chicago and won it for the White Sox in 2021.
The last NL hurler to win MLB Reliever of the Year in consecutive seasons was Josh Hader for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018 and 2019. The hard-throwing southpaw also nabbed the NL’s top relief pitcher honor in 2021 for Milwaukee.
In fact, two Brewers pitchers — Hader and Devin Williams (2020, 2023) — combined to claim five NL Reliever of the Year awards over a six-season stretch from 2018-2023.
Add in the trophy that John Axford won for Milwaukee in 2011, and the Brewers have produced MLB-best six Reliever of the Year winners since 2010. No other franchise has claimed more than three during that same time frame.
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❓ MLB Reliever of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite to win MLB Reliever of the Year in 2026?
Louis Varland of the Toronto Blue Jays is favored to win the MLB Reliever of the Year in 2026 for the American League. San Diego Padres right-hander Mason Miller is the favorite in the National League.
Who won MLB Reliever of the Year in 2025?
Boston’s Aroldis Chapman won the MLB Reliever of the Year award for the American League in 2025. He recorded 32 saves and a 1.17 ERA. Edwin Diaz, who was with the New York Mets last season, won the award in the National League as he posted 28 saves and a 1.63 ERA.
How is MLB Reliever of the Year determined?
The MLB Reliever of the Year is determined by a select panel of former relief pitchers, including Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman (for whom the American and National league awards are respectively named). When the regular season concludes, each panelist submits a ballot with their top three selections. From there, a 5-3-1 weighted point system is used, and the pitchers with the most points in each league are declared the winners.
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Chris Roberts
