The 2026 World Cup Group D odds have become even more intriguing after the opening round of fixtures. The USA’s emphatic win over Paraguay has strengthened their position at the top of the market, but Australia’s impressive victory over Turkey has thrown the battle for qualification wide open.
World Cup 2026 Group D Odds and Predictions: Can Turkey Recover?
- We share the latest World Cup Group D odds
- What are our World Cup Group D predictions?
- Who are the Group D players to watch out for?
Scott Coleman-Imagn Images
Group D is one of the most balanced in terms of what the odds suggest, but it’s the one that offers the most intriguing betting opportunities ahead of the tournament...
The co-hosts may now be favourites to top the group, but Australia have emerged as genuine challengers, while Turkey and Paraguay still have everything to play for with two matches remaining. That makes for some fascinating World Cup Group D predictions.
In this article, we break down the latest Group D betting within the wider World Cup odds market, analysing the key betting angles and where the best value may lie as the race for the knockout stages unfolds.
World Cup 2026 Group D odds
The opening round of fixtures has dramatically reshaped the Group D betting. The USA strengthened their position as favourites after a commanding 4-1 victory over Paraguay, while Australia’s impressive 2-0 win over Turkey has seen the Socceroos emerge as serious contenders for top spot.
Here’s how the latest World Cup Group D odds look in full:
| Team | To Win Group | To Qualify | Not to Qualify |
|---|---|---|---|
 United States |
2/5 (71.4%) | 1/80 (98.8%) | 25/1 (3.8%) |
 Australia |
7/2 (22.2%) | 1/6 (85.7%) | 4/1 (20.0%) |
 Turkey |
6/1 (14.3%) | 8/11 (57.9%) | 1/1 (50.0%) |
 Paraguay |
28/1 (3.4%) | 5/4 (44.4%) | 4/7 (63.6%) |
Odds provided by bet365 – accurate as of 19th June.
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Group D winner odds live
World Cup Group D Predictions & Best Bets: Can the Host Nation Hold Ground?
Group D has already delivered one of the biggest surprises of the opening round, with Australia beating Turkey 2-0 while the USA cruised past Paraguay 4-1. Those results have reshaped the betting market, but with two matches still to play and the best third-placed teams also progressing, there is still plenty to play for.
Before diving into individual team dynamics, punters should check out the latest World Cup predictions and keep an eye on how these opening fixtures shift the overall World Cup winner odds.
Top World Cup Group D best bets
The opening fixtures have naturally altered the betting landscape, but there is still value to be found if you believe the market has overreacted to one result.
Turkey to Win the Group – 7/4 ▲ 6/1
This was my pre-tournament selection and, despite Turkey’s opening defeat, I’m happy to stand by it. The market has pushed their price out from 7/4 to 6/1 after losing to Australia, creating a much bigger upside if they can respond. Beat Paraguay and they will head into the final round with everything still to play for, making the current odds far more attractive than they were before the tournament began.
USA Not to Qualify – 7/2 ▲ 25/1
This recommendation has taken a major hit after the USA’s dominant victory over Paraguay. They now look overwhelmingly likely to reach the knockout stages and the market reflects that, with their odds drifting all the way to 25/1. Sometimes betting value doesn’t work out, and this looks one of those occasions unless the co-hosts suffer an unexpected collapse over the final two matches.
Australia Not to Qualify – 4/5 ▲ 4/1
Australia’s opening win has completely transformed their position in Group D. What looked a sensible pre-tournament angle now appears to be in serious trouble, with the Socceroos only needing one more positive result to put themselves in an excellent position. At 4/1 the market now sees elimination as far less likely, highlighting just how quickly World Cup group betting can change after a single matchday.
World Cup 2026: Group D Odds, Team Analysis & Breakdown
Group D has already taken an intriguing turn after the opening round of fixtures. The USA underlined their credentials with a convincing 4-1 win over Paraguay, while Australia’s victory over Turkey has left the battle for qualification far more open than many expected. Below is a tactical and statistical breakdown of all four nations competing in Group D.
🇺🇸 USA Group D Odds
- FIFA World Ranking: 16th
- Best World Cup Finish: Third Place (1930)
- Manager: Mauricio Pochettino
The USA have justified their status as Group D favourites with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Paraguay in their opening fixture. Mauricio Pochettino’s side combined attacking flair with clinical finishing, taking a major step towards securing qualification and strengthening their position at the top of the group.
Much of their success will continue to hinge on Christian Pulisic. For those looking at individual performances, the Pulisic World Cup prop bets market offers value across anytime goalscorer, total shots and assists. Before placing any individual wagers, it’s also worth checking the latest World Cup predictions to assess the USA’s chances of making a deep run.
The defensive concerns that existed before the tournament haven’t completely disappeared, but after scoring four goals and taking control of the group, the co-hosts now look firmly on course for the knockout stages. Their next test against Australia could effectively decide who finishes top of Group D.
⚽ Next Match: USA vs Australia (19th June)
🇹🇷 Turkey Group D Odds
Depo Photos/Sipa USA
- FIFA World Ranking: 35th
- Best World Cup Finish: Third Place (2002)
- Manager: Vincenzo Montella
Turkey once again arrived at a major tournament with plenty of dark horse backing, but their campaign got off to the worst possible start with a 2-0 defeat to Australia. Having qualified through the playoffs after finishing behind Spain, Montella’s side now have little room for error if they are to challenge for top spot or secure automatic qualification.
Despite the setback, this remains one of the most exciting young squads in the tournament. Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız provide creativity and attacking flair, while Hakan Calhanoglu brings invaluable experience and leadership in midfield. If Turkey can quickly rediscover the form that saw them impress at Euro 2024, they are more than capable of getting their campaign back on track.
The opening defeat has complicated their route through the group, but with the expanded format allowing the best third-placed teams to advance, Turkey’s knockout hopes remain firmly alive. Victory over Paraguay in their next match would put them right back in contention heading into the final round of fixtures.
⚽ Next Match: Turkey vs Paraguay (19th June)
🇵🇾 Paraguay Group D Odds
- FIFA World Ranking: 56th
- Best World Cup Finish: Quarter-finals (2010)
- Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
Paraguay’s World Cup campaign got off to a disastrous start with a 4-1 defeat to the USA, leaving Gustavo Alfaro’s side with plenty of work to do if they are to reach the knockout stages. Their return to the World Cup finals after a 16-year absence has quickly become an uphill battle, with little margin for error over the remaining two fixtures.
Despite that setback, Paraguay remain a disciplined and physical side capable of causing problems for any opponent. Julio Enciso provides their main attacking threat, while Alfaro’s tactical approach has previously helped them frustrate some of South America’s strongest nations. The expanded tournament format also means a third-place finish could still be enough to progress, keeping their qualification hopes alive.
Their next meeting with Turkey already looks pivotal. Defeat would almost certainly end any realistic hopes of reaching the knockout stages, while a victory would throw Group D wide open heading into the final round.
⚽ Next Match: Turkey vs Paraguay (19th June)
🇦🇺 Australia Group D Odds
- FIFA World Ranking: 24th
- Best World Cup Finish: Round of 16 (2006, 2022)
- Manager: Tony Popovic
Australia have already exceeded pre-tournament expectations by opening their campaign with an impressive 2-0 victory over Turkey. Having started as outsiders to qualify, the Socceroos have dramatically improved their position and now head into Matchday 2 with a genuine opportunity to secure a place in the knockout stages.
Tony Popovic’s side once again showcased the defensive organisation that carried them through AFC qualifying, while also demonstrating the pace and efficiency on the counter-attack that was sometimes lacking before the tournament. With confidence high after defeating one of the group’s fancied sides, Australia have put themselves firmly in the race for automatic qualification, although sterner tests against the USA and Paraguay still await.
⚽ Next Match: USA vs Australia (19th June)
Stay ahead of every twist and turn in the tournament with our printable World Cup schedule, designed to help you plot the knockout bracket and follow every team’s journey from the 11th June opener to the final.
Group D players to watch: Arda Guler and Christian Pulisic
Arda Guler signed for Real Madrid at just 18 years of age but was already established in the Fenerbahce first team by that point. He’s taken time to settle in Spain but has developed into one of Turkey’s most important players, capable of changing games with his creativity, set-piece delivery and eye for goal.
Christian Pulisic remains the face of the USMNT and made an immediate impact at this World Cup as the co-hosts opened with an emphatic victory over Paraguay. Now at AC Milan, he has rediscovered the form that made him one of Europe’s brightest young talents and will be central to the USA’s hopes of making a deep run.
For those looking at individual markets, the latest Pulisic World Cup prop bets remain one of the most interesting betting angles in Group D.
Group D odds: Player markets to bet on
You can’t really make a strong case for anyone in this group to win the Golden Boot or Player of the Tournament awards, but there is still plenty of value in the individual player markets. Pulisic and Guler remain the standout names, while Australia’s pace on the counter and Paraguay’s reliance on Julio Enciso create interesting anytime goalscorer and assist opportunities as the group progresses.
Group D standout performers so far
| Player | Nation | Goals | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Pulisic | USA | 1 | 1 |
| Folarin Balogun | USA | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Weah | USA | 1 | 0 |
| Giovanni Reyna | USA | 0 | 1 |
| Nestory Irankunda | Australia | 1 | 0 |
| Connor Metcalfe | Australia | 1 | 0 |
| Paul Okon-Engstler | Australia | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Bos | Australia | 0 | 1 |
World Cup 2026 Group D fixtures and results
Keep track of fixtures, results and live prices through the latest World Cup news hub, where the World Cup Group D odds will continue to shift as the group stage unfolds.
| Match | When/Where | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| USA 4-1 Paraguay | Completed – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood | USA vs Paraguay predictions |
| Australia 2-0 Turkey | Completed – BC Place, Vancouver | Australia vs Turkey predictions |
| USA vs Australia | Friday 19th June, 19:00 UTC, Lumen Field, Seattle | USA vs Australia predictions |
| Turkey vs Paraguay | Saturday 20th June, 03:00 UTC, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | Turkey vs Paraguay predictions |
| Turkey vs USA | Friday 26th June, 02:00 UTC, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood | Turkey vs USA predictions |
| Paraguay vs Australia | Friday 26th June, 02:00 UTC, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | Paraguay vs Australia predictions |
World Cup 2026 Group D table
Oddspedia’s World Cup standings page provides all the information you need in terms of how the tournament is playing out. Below is a look at how things currently stand in Group D.
Other World Cup Group odds
We have provided our World Cup predictions for all 12 groups so you can get ahead of the game before the tournament starts on 11th June:
- World Cup 2026 Group A Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group B Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group C Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group E Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group F Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group G Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group H Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group I Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group J Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group K Odds and Predictions
- World Cup 2026 Group L Odds and Predictions
Get more value out of your World Cup Group D predictions
The buzz around the World Cup means there are plenty of World Cup betting offers to take advantage of. Whether you follow my selections or make your own, these offers enable you to get more out of the bets you make with some added extras and free bets.
World Cup Group D odds and predictions FAQs
Who are the favourites in the 2026 World Cup Group D odds?
Following their 4-1 win over Paraguay, the USA are now clear favourites to win Group D at 2/5, having shortened significantly from their pre-tournament price of 4/3. Australia’s opening victory over Turkey has moved them into second favouritism, while Turkey and Paraguay now have ground to make up after losing their first matches.
Will the USA qualify from World Cup Group D?
The USA are now overwhelming favourites to qualify from Group D, with bookmakers pricing them at just 1/80 after their opening victory. Mauricio Pochettino’s side already have one foot in the knockout stage, although matches against Australia and Turkey will determine whether they finish first or second.
How many teams qualify from Group D at the 2026 World Cup?
The top two teams from Group D automatically progress to the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup. In addition, the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups will also advance, meaning even teams that lose an opening match can still qualify with a strong finish to the group stage.
Stuart Brown
