Sunday Night Football Odds – SNF Predictions And Best Bets

© Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Well, we are here, the last Sunday Night Football game of the regular season. NFL betting expert, Matt Jacobs has pulled out the best bets ahead of what should be an interesting matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. Before diving into our best plays, remember to only bet using the best NFL odds from the top US sportsbooks.

Sunday Night Football odds: Bills vs Dolphins

Spread Moneyline Total
Buffalo Bills -3 (-110) -162
Miami Dolphins +3 (+100) +136
Over 49.5 -108
Under 49.5 -112

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbooks and correct as of January 4. Bet $5 Get $150 with DraftKings – no DraftKings promo code necessary.

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Bills vs Dolphins Sunday Night Football best bets

The Miami Dolphins have held at least a share of first place in the AFC East all season (and have been the sole occupant since Week 5).

The Dolphins continue to field the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense, total offense, and passing offense.

They’re 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS at home (outscoring visitors by an average of 17 points per game). 

Their 10-6 overall ATS record is one of the five best in the league.

And despite coming off an ugly loss at Baltimore, Miami hasn’t dropped back-to-back games all season.

So of course the Dolphins (11-5) head into their Week 18 Sunday Night Football showdown against the Buffalo Bills (10-6) as a 3-point home … underdog?

Looks like NFL oddsmakers have set a classic trap. And we’re not falling for it.

Bills vs. Dolphins best bet

Dolphins +3 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Ever hear of the psychological phenomenon called “recency bias”? In a nutshell, it’s a cognitive trait in which individuals overemphasize the importance of a most recent event when analyzing future outcomes — often casting aside historical data that suggests there won’t be a repeat of that outcome.

That’s precisely what’s going on with this Bills-Dolphins point spread.

Miami is coming off a horrendous showing in Baltimore, with the 56-19 drubbing being its most lopsided loss of the season. Buffalo, on the other hand, has rebounded from a midseason slump by winning its last four games.

Oddsmakers realize bettors know these facts. They also realize that bettors are aware of what happened in Week 4, when the Dolphins took a 3-0 record to Buffalo and got stomped 48-20 as a 3-point road underdog.

Now here’s what those oddsmakers hope bettors will selectively forget:

  • Miami rebounded from the Bills loss with a 31-16 rout of the Giants as a 13-point home favorite. 
  • The Dolphins also rebounded from their other double-digit loss (31-17 at Philadelphia) with a victory over the Patriots by the exact same score as a 7.5-point home favorite.
  • And while the Bills have won four straight games, only one — a 31-10 thrashing of the Cowboys in Week 16 — was one-sided. The last two weeks, Buffalo barely held off two AFC doormats, the Chargers (24-22 as a 12.5-point road favorite) and Patriots (27-21 as a 14.5-point home favorite)

In fact, since crushing the Dolphins on Oct. 1, the Bills have covered the spread just three times in 12 games. That includes a 1-3 ATS record on the road and a 2-7 ATS record as a favorite.

Another thing casual bettors might not recall: Miami faced a much better Bills team three times last season. The Dolphins won the first game 21-19 as a 4-point home underdog; lost 32-29 Dolphins loss as a 7-point road underdog; and lost 34-31 as a 14-point road underdog in the playoffs (with a third-string quarterback).

Now let’s quickly return to the recency bias thing — specifically to point out that Miami isn’t the only team this season that has immediately bounced back from a dreadful performance.

In Week 1, the Cowboys trashed the Giants 40-0 in New York. The Giants bounced back in Week 2 with a 31-28 victory at Arizona.

In Week 3, Miami throttled the Broncos 70-20. The still-winless Broncos went to Chicago in Week 4 and prevailed 31-28.

In Week 5, the Cowboys lost 42-10 at San Francisco. Eight days later, they answered with a 20-17 road win at the Chargers.

In Week 6, Baltimore crushed the red-hot Lions 38-6 at home. Detroit followed with a 26-14 Monday night beatdown of the Raiders.

And just three weeks ago, the Chargers got embarrassed 63-21 at the Raiders. Six days later? L.A. hosted Buffalo, which needed a last-minute rally to steal that 24-22 victory, never coming close to covering as a 12.5-point favorite.

There are countless other bounce-back examples, of course. But you get the general point.

The Dolphins, for all of their flaws, are a quality team with a lot of pride. They remember what happened last week in Baltimore, and what happened in Week 4 in Buffalo. 

And they know being a home underdog — in a national televised season finale, against a divisional opponent with a worse record, and with the AFC East title up for grabs — is a massive slap in the face.

It’s important to mention that Miami’s roster has been hit hard by the injury bug recently — several key players are listed as questionable (or worse). That also surely factored into the oddsmakers’ number.

Still, we expect the Dolphins to play with massive intensity, lean heavily on the “disrespect card,” hang with a Bills squad that is far from perfect, and be in position for the outright victory in the end.

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Bills vs Dolphins player props

Josh Allen total passing yards UNDER 247.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has torched the Dolphins with his arm in the last four head-to-head meetings.

He passed for 400 and 304 yards in two regular-season games last year; 352 yards in a narrow playoff victory nearly a year ago; and had 320 yards in the Bills’ 48-20 home victory in Week 4.

So Allen’s consensus passing yards prop of 245.5 for Sunday’s game in Miami looks crazy low at first glance. But upon further review, it makes plenty of sense.

For starters, Allen threw for more than 231 yards just three times in his first eight games against Miami — and in two of those contests, he had 249 and 256 yards.

More relevant than that, Allen’s passing stats have nosedived in the last two months of the season as Buffalo’s offense has committed more to the running game. His passing totals going back to Week 9:

258 (at Cincinnati), 177 (vs. Denver), 275 (vs. Jets), 339 (at Philadelphia in an overtime game), 233 (at Kansas City), 94 (vs. Dallas), 237 (at Chargers), 169 (vs. New England.

So Allen has failed to eclipse FanDuel’s yardage prop of 247.5 in five of his last eight games, including four in a row.

And while Allen lit up Miami back on Oct. 1, the Dolphins were without former All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the first seven games while recovering from knee surgery. In nine games since Ramsey returned, Miami is yielding an average of just 205.8 passing yards.

True, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson had a field day last week (321 yards on just 18 completions). But Miami held Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott to 185 and 253 yards, respectively.

So let’s bet on Allen to fall short of his passing yards prop for a fifth straight week and the seventh time in the last nine contests.

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Bills vs Dolphins player props

Tyreek Hill UNDER 94.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Tyreek Hill is the most electrifying — not to mention fastest — wide receiver on the planet. And he’s had a sensational season, leading the league in both receiving yards (1,717) and touchdowns (12) while ranking second in receptions (112).

However, The Cheetah has been slowed in recent weeks by a bum ankle that he injured in a Dec. 11 home game against Tennessee. Hill finished with 61 yards (on four catches) against the Titans, then was forced to sit out the following week’s home game against the Jets.

Hill has been back on the field the last two weeks, posting fantastic numbers in a win over the Cowboys (9 catches, 99 yards) and ho-hum numbers in last week’s blowout loss at Baltimore (6 catches, 76 yards).

This week, Hill will try to beat a Bills defense that has contained him more often than not. Since his trade from the Chiefs to the Dolphins prior to last season, Hill has produced yardage totals of 33, 69, 58, and 69 in four games (one playoffs).

And while he burned the Bills for 150 and 172 yards in two AFC playoff victories when he was with the Chiefs, Hill managed just 41, 20, and 63 yards in his other three regular-season games against Buffalo.

Obviously, it’s always dangerous to play an Under prop on Hill because he’s a threat to go the distance from anywhere on the field. But given his tender ankle — and the possibility that tag-team partner Jalen Waddle might miss his second straight game with his own ankle issue — the Bills undoubtedly will roll coverage to Hill and force someone else on the Dolphins to beat them.

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Sunday Night Football predictions for Bills vs Dolphins

Sunday Night Football predictions – spread

Bills vs Dolphins Point spread
Prediction Dolphins +3
Odds -110 at DraftKings

Odds provided by DraftKings – accurate as of January 4

Sunday Night Football predictions – player prop

Bills vs Dolphins Josh Allen total passing yards
Prediction UNDER 247.5
Odds -110 at FanDuel

Odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of January 4

Sunday Night Football predictions – player prop

Bills vs Dolphins Tyreek Hill receiving yards
Prediction UNDER 94.5
Odds -115 at BetMGM

Odds provided by BetMGM – accurate as of January 4

Sunday Night Football latest information

Where to watch Bills vs Dolphins SNF

Location Hard Rock Stadium
Date January 7, 2024
Time 8.15pm ET
TV DAZN, NBC

Bills vs Dolphins injury report

Bills

Player Status
Josh Allen P
Tre’Davious White IR
Matt Milano IR
Damar Hamlin Questionable
Leonard Floyd Questionable

Dolphins

Player Status
Jaylen Waddle Questionable
Zach Sieler Questionable
Duke Riley Questionable
Raheem Mostert Questionable
Tyreek Hill Questionable
Austin Jackson Questionable
Xavien Howard Doubtful

Sunday Night Football schedule

Week Date Game Time (ET) Where to watch
1 9/10 Dallas Cowboys 40

New York Giants 0

8.20pm NBC
2 9/17 Miami Dolphins 24

New England Patriots 17

8.20pm NBC
3 9/24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Las Vegas Raiders 18

8.20pm NBC
4 10/1 Kansas City Chiefs 23

New York Jets 20

8.20pm NBC
5 10/8 Dallas Cowboys 10

San Francisco 49ers

8.20pm NBC
6 10/15 New York Giants 9

Buffalo Bills 14

8.20pm NBC
7 10/22 Miami Dolphins 17

Philadelphia Eagles 31

8.20pm NBC
8 10/29 Chicago Bears 13

Los Angeles Chargers 30

8.20pm NBC
9 11/5 Buffalo Bills 18

Cincinnati Bengals 24

8.20pm NBC
10 11/12 New York Jets 12

Las Vegas Raiders 16

8.20pm NBC
11 11/19 Minnesota Vikings 20

Denver Broncos 21

8.20pm NBC
12 11/26 Baltimore Ravens 20

Los Angeles Chargers 10

8.20pm NBC
13 12/3 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Green Bay Packers 27

8.20pm NBC
14 12/10 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Dallas Cowboys 33

8.20pm NBC
15 12/17 Baltimore Ravens 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 7

8.20pm NBC
16 12/23 Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

AND

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers

4.30pm

AND

8.00pm

NBC
17 12/31 Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings 8.20pm NBC

Betting tips for Sunday Night Football

Injuries and betting

Did the star receiver have a “questionable” injury designation going through his walkthrough on Wednesday and is a game-time decision come Thursday? Or is he listed as doubtful and likely to miss the game? These are the types of designations that can make or break your wager. Make sure you are fully up to date on whether a player is in or out prior to kickoff and check the injury report. Here’s a breakdown of what you may see:

P = probable (will play)

Q = questionable (will likely play)

D = doubtful (won’t likely play)

O = out (won’t play)

Here comes the rain again

Knowing where the game is being played and what type of climate the team you bet on is playing in can be crucial. Is the over/under 50.5 but they are playing in heavy rain and strong winds? That’s an easy under. Check the weather report before placing your bet.

Honey, we’re trending

How has the team faired in their last three games? How have they done historically on Thursday nights? Knowing the trends and insights can go a long way when becoming a profitable bettor, especially on quick turnaround games like Thursday night.

Down but not out

Even though some teams may be having a rough season, that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t a smart bet. Check the team’s Against the Spread record and how often they hit the Over on the season, the numbers you find may surprise you and may sway you in a different direction!

No “I” in team but there is a “ME”

If you don’t feel confident enough to wager your money on a team – check the player props! An inside edge can always be found on any given game. If you know an offense is struggling, take a look at the quarterback passing props; if you know a certain receiver isn’t getting enough targets, take a look at his receiving yards. You get the picture – the possibilities are endless.

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