Thursday Night Football odds – TNF predictions and best bets

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles Rams are playing some great football. They have now won five of their last six games and are 8-7 on the season. Our resident NFL expert Matt Jacob had a clean 2-0 sweep in his best bets, hitting on the Rams -4 and Matthew Stafford to have over 1.5 touchdown passes.

This week we may have a downright ugly one between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns. The Browns currently sit 10th in Super Bowl odds with most sportsbooks.

As always, let’s get you ready for Thursday Night Football. Time to buckle in for some Week 16 action! Let’s have a day and, as usual, keep an eye out for the best NFL odds.

Remember, Oddspedia also provides you with the best odds from all of the top US sportsbooks for the game.

Thursday Night Football odds: Jets vs Browns

Spread Moneyline Total
New York Jets +7.5 (-108) +275
Cleveland Browns -7.5 (-112) -112
Over 35 -108
Under 35 -112

Odds via DraftKings. Bet $5 with DraftKings and get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins, and you don’t even need a DraftKings promo code.

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Jets vs Browns Thursday Night Football best bets

In several respects, the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns have traveled on parallel tracks during the 2023-24 season.

Both teams lost their franchise quarterbacks to season-ending injuries — the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth play of the season; the Browns’ Deshaun Watson (shoulder) went down in Week 10.

Both will start fourth-string quarterbacks when they square off in Cleveland in the season’s final Thursday Night Football game, which kicks off Week 17.

And both are led by suffocating defenses that rank first (Cleveland) and third (New York) in total yards allowed.

This, however, is where the similarities end. Because while both teams also received a ton of preseason hype, only one has lived up to it.

That team is a 7-point home favorite Thursday night. And it’s the one we’re backing with one of our Jets vs. Browns best bets.

Jets vs Browns best bet

Browns -7.5 points (at DraftKings)

As one starting quarterback after another went down this season — and one backup after another proved less effective than a car with no engine — Joe Flacco sat at home, waiting for his phone to ring.

The wait ended just before Thanksgiving, when the Browns signed the former Super Bowl MVP to their practice squad after the injury bug bit Watson’s backups (P.J. Walker and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson).

Flacco was finally activated prior to a Week 13 game at the Los Angeles Rams, and he was solid (23-for-44, 254 yards, two touchdowns, one interception). But the game got away from Cleveland late in the fourth quarter, when the Rams scored three times in three minutes to turn a narrow 20-19 lead into a 36-19 blowout win.

Flacco has started three games since and, well, the numbers tell the story: 81-for-121 (67%), 1,053 yards (more than 300 in each game), eight TDs (multiple TDs in each game), and six INTs.

Most important of all for the Browns, they won (and covered) all three games.

Not only is Cleveland 10-5 and on the verge of clinching just its third postseason berth since 1995, but Flacco — remarkably — is in the hunt for NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors. (His consensus odds of +400 trail only Buffalo’s Damar Hamlin.)

As their revolving door of quarterbacks has continued to spin, the Browns have laid down a blueprint for dealing with (and overcoming) adversity. The same cannot be said for New York.

Yes, the Jets showed some fight Saturday when they rallied for a last-second 30-28 victory, the final points coming on a 54-yard field goal. But they also somehow blew a 27-7 halftime lead. At home. Against Washington.

And while four of New York’s other five victories have come against playoff-caliber opponents (Buffalo, Philadelphia, Houston, and Denver), it also has lost to the Chargers, Raiders, Falcons, and Patriots. 

What’s more, the Cowboys, Dolphins (two games) and Bills (in a Week 11 rematch) throttled the Jets by a combined score of 126-29.

Take away a 13-10 overtime “road” victory in Week 8 over the Giants — the teams share the same stadium — and New York has just one victory away from home: 31-21 at Denver in Week 5 (back when the Broncos were a mess).

Results of the Jets’ other road contests: 30-10 loss at Dallas, 16-12 loss at Las Vegas, 32-6 loss at Buffalo, 30-0 loss at Miami.

Also worth noting: New York managed just 6, 8, 10, and 13 points in home losses to the Chargers, Falcons, Patriots, and Dolphins, respectively.

Add it all up, and the Jets have scored 13 points or fewer in nine of 15 games, including five of six as the road team.

Now it’s on to Cleveland, which is 7-1 at home. Three of the visitors to the Dawg Pound (Bengals, Titans, and Cardinals) scored a total of three points. Three others (49ers, Steelers and Bears) tallied 17, 10, and 17 points respectively.

Admittedly, Flacco could have his hands full against a Jets defense that ranks second in the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed, tied for eighth in interceptions, and has amassed 40 sacks.

Then again, fourth-string New York quarterback Trevor Siemian will be going up against a Browns squad that is No. 1 total defense, No. 1 passing defense, No. 1 in TD passes allowed, tied for second in interceptions, and has accumulated 44 sacks.

Throw in motivation — Cleveland needs a win to nail down a playoff spot; New York was eliminated from the postseason two weeks ago — and this one screams “Advantage: Browns” across the board.

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Jets vs Browns player props

Breece Hall total rushing yards UNDER 48.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

The man most responsible for the Jets eking out Sunday’s victory over Washington? Running back Breece Hall.

The second-year pro galloped for 95 yards on 20 carries and also turned a career-best 12 catches into 96 receiving yards.

Hall’s rushing total against the Commanders was the fifth-highest of his 22-game career. It also was 10th time in those 22 games that he’s reached at least 50 rushing yards.

This week, the 2022 second-round pick goes up against a Browns defense that isn’t nearly as stout against the run as against the pass — opponents average 100.2 rushing yards per contest against Cleveland.

However, that’s still 22 yards-per-game better than Washington; 41 yards better than Denver (which surrendered a career-high 177 yards to Hall in Week 5), and 11 yards better than Buffalo (which gave up 95 yards to Hall in Week 1).

It’s also 13 yards better than both Kansas City and the Chargers, against whom Hall rushed for 56 and 50 yards, respectively.

Hall hasn’t topped 40 rushing yards in any other game this season. And only once has he done so in back-to-back outings (56 vs. Kansas City and 177 at Denver).

With the journeyman Siemian under center for New York, expect the Browns to key on Hall all night and hold him Under his rushing yards prop of 48.5.

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Thursday Night Football predictions for Jets vs Browns

Thursday Night Football predictions – point spread

Jets vs Browns

Point spread

Prediction

Browns -7.5

Odds

-102 at DraftKings

Odds provided by DraftKings – accurate as of December 27

Thursday Night Football predictions – player props

Jets vs Browns

Amari Cooper receiving yards

Prediction

OVER 58.5

Odds

-110 at DraftKings

Odds provided by DraftKings – accurate as of December 27

Thursday Night Football predictions – player props

Jets vs Browns

Breece Hall rushing yards

Prediction

UNDER 48.5 

Odds

-115 at BetMGM

Odds provided by BetMGM– accurate as of December 27

Thursday Night Football latest information

Where to watch Jets vs Browns

Location Cleveland Browns Stadium
Date 12/28
Time 8.15pm ET
TV Prime Video, TSN, DAZN, FOX

Thursday Night Football injury report

Jets

Player Status
Greg Zuerlein Questionable
Al Woods IR
Perrion Winfrey OUT
Zach Wilson OUT
CJ Uzomah IR
Tanzel Smart OUT
Jeremy Ruckert OUT
Aaron Rodgers OUT
Connor McGovern IR
Allen Lazard Questionable
Quinton Jefferson IR
Chuck Clark IR

Browns

Player Status
Michael Woods IR
Jedrick Wills IR
Deshaun Watson IR
Anthony Walker OUT
Juan Thornhill Questionable
Maurice Hurst IR
Dustin Hopkins OUT
Amari Cooper Questionable

Thursday Night Football schedule

Week Date Game/Result Time (TV) Where to watch
1 9/7/2023 Detroit Lions 21

Kansas City Chiefs 20

8:20pm NBC
2 9/14/2023 Minnesota Vikings 28

Philadelphia Eagles 34

8:15pm PRIME
3 9/21/2023 New York Giants 12

San Francisco 49ers 30

8:15pm PRIME
4 9/28/2023 Detroit Lions 34

Green Bay Packers 20

8:15pm PRIME
5 10/5/2023 Chicago Bears 40

Washington Commanders 20

8:15pm PRIME
6 10/12/2023 Denver Broncos 8

Kansas City Chiefs 19

8:15pm PRIME
7 10/19/2023 Jacksonville Jaguars 31

New Orleans Saints 24

8:15pm PRIME
8 10/26/2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

Buffalo Bills 24

8:15pm PRIME
9 11/2/2023 Tennessee Titans 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 20

8:15pm PRIME
10 11/9/2023 Carolina Panthers 13

Chicago Bears 16

8:15pm PRIME
11 11/16/2023 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Baltimore Ravens 34

8:15pm PRIME
12 11/23/2023 Green Bay Packers 29

Detroit Lions 22

12:00pm FOX
12 11/23/2023 Washington Commanders 10

Dallas Cowboys 45

4:30pm CBS
12 11/23/2023 San Francisco 49ers 31

Seattle Seahawks 13

8:20pm NBC
13 11/30/2023 Seattle Seahawks 35

Dallas Cowboys 41

8:15pm PRIME
14 12/7/2023 New England Patriots 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 18

8:15pm PRIME
15 12/14/2023 Los Angeles Chargers

Las Vegas Raiders

8:15pm PRIME
16 12/21/2023 New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams

8:15pm PRIME
17 12/29/2023 New York Jets

Cleveland Browns

8:15pm PRIME
18 No TNF No TNF No TNF No TNF

Betting tips for Thursday Night Football

Injuries and betting

Did the star receiver have a “questionable” injury designation going through his walkthrough on Wednesday and is a game-time decision come Thursday? Or is he listed as doubtful and likely to miss the game? These are the types of designations that can make or break your wager. Make sure you are fully up to date on whether a player is in or out prior to kickoff and check the injury report. Here’s a breakdown of what you may see:

P = probable (will play)

Q = questionable (will likely play)

D = doubtful (won’t likely play)

O = out (won’t play)

Here comes the rain again

Knowing where the game is being played and what type of climate the team you bet on is playing in can be crucial. Is the over/under 50.5 but they are playing in heavy rain and strong winds? That’s an easy under. Check the weather report before placing your bet.

Honey, we’re trending

How has the team faired in their last three games? How have they done historically on Thursday nights? Knowing the trends and insights can go a long way when becoming a profitable bettor, especially on quick turnaround games like Thursday night.

Down but not out

Even though some teams may be having a rough season, that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t a smart bet. Check the team’s Against the Spread record and how often they hit the Over on the season, the numbers you find may surprise you and may sway you in a different direction!

No “I” in team but there is a “ME”

If you don’t feel confident enough to wager your money on a team – check the player props! An inside edge can always be found on any given game. If you know an offense is struggling, take a look at the quarterback passing props; if you know a certain receiver isn’t getting enough targets, take a look at his receiving yards. You get the picture – the possibilities are endless.

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