Value Bets Explained: Value Bets Betting Guide and Tips
What Are Value Bets?
Value betting is a gambling system that involves searching for odds that give you an edge over a particular bookie and betting on them. To expound further, if you go through a match and realise the outcome of an event occurring is much higher than the bookie odds state, that is a value bet.
So if you are not a professional sports bettor, you can consider value bets as a regular bet with some added advantage. However, before you conclude that particular odds offer value bets, you must do thorough research and calculations. Also, note that value betting is mostly applicable in sports betting since each outcome lacks an exact statistical probability of occurring.
Calculating Probabilities (with Example)
For a better understanding, take a value bet example of a bookmaker offering 2.50 odds that Chelsea will beat Manchester United. To get the Market Probability, apply the formula (1/decimal odds)*100. This equals (1/2.5)*100, which gives you 40%. In short, the bookmaker suggests that the probability of Chelsea beating Manchester United is 40%. You can also apply the same formula when calculating Fair Probability, but use your calculated odds this time. For instance, if your odds are 2.2, the fair probability becomes (1/2.2)*100, which is 45%, and those are your probabilities.
If you wish to calculate whether this is a value bet, you can apply the formula (Fair probability – Market probability) / Market probability, which will appear as (45% - 40%) / 40%. This will give you the answer of 0.125. Since the number is above 0, this is a value bet.
Difference Between a Regular Bet and A Value Bet
There is a big difference between a regular bet and a value bet. The only way to notice either of the two is to calculate your odds. Sportsbooks use betting software to calculate odds that are added to different markets. More often, a regular bet is neither overvalued nor undervalued. On the other hand, a value bet is often priced below its exact value.
Low Odds vs. High Odds - When Does a Bet Become a Value Bet
A bet becomes a value bet when your calculated odds are low. That way, when you use the formula (Fair probability – Market probability) / Market probability, you get a number above zero, making it a value bet. On the other hand, if the odds are high, you will get a negative number after applying the value bet formula above, which means it is not a value bet.
Where Can I Place Value Bets
You can place value bets on any sportsbook in the online gambling scene. But then, to find a bookie with value bets, whether you are doing matched or real money betting, you must research. You must also calculate your odds and compare them with the provided odds.
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What Types of Value Bets Are There
There are different types of value bets depending on which betting market they fall under. To understand this betting strategy better, you must know the types of value bets and what they entail. Below is a detailed explanation of the main types of value bets that you should know.
Value Bets on The Favourites
The favourite is a team likely to win in a particular event. As a result, most favourites often have lesser odds compared to underdogs. When it comes to value betting strategy, after calculations, you will realise that there is a much higher chance of the favourites winning than the bookie states. This, therefore, presents you with value bets on the favourites.
Underdog Bets
Underdogs are always considered the weaker teams with a low probability of winning the match. This explains why they always have higher odds. But there are instances when underdogs have a much higher chance of losing the match than what the bookie's odds state. In such a case, you have yourself value bets on underdogs. So all you have to do is to place underdog bets.
Tie Bets
Tie bets or draw bets are yet another type of value bet. This is where the operator assumes the probability of two teams ending up in a tie is much lower than your true probability estimates. Therefore, take advantage of the information and place tie bets.
Underdog Betting with Asian Handicap
Underdog betting with Asian Handicap can also present you with value bets. That is where the operator assumes the probability of the team losing is not that high, so they keep this in mind when providing the handicap bet. All you need to do is confirm the value bet and place the bet if the value is greater than one.
Important Basics of a Value Bet Betting Strategy - Tips and Tricks
The value betting system is designed to increase your chances of placing winning bets. However, for the best outcome, you need value betting strategies. This section will provide you with free betting tips that value bettors should consider when applying the betting system. Some of the main tricks include:
Scan Markets for Profitable Bets - Do a Bet Analysis
Scanning markets for profitable bets is mandatory. It is usually the only way to enjoy better payouts in the long run. Always make sure you do a thorough bet analysis before settling on a betting market. When analysing, consider applying the Kelly formula or any other strategy that will help you identify profitable odds and markets.
The Probability of An Outcome Is Higher than Expected by The Bookmaker - Do a Value Bet Calculation
The only way you will notice that the probability of an outcome is slightly higher than what the bookmaker expects is to do a correct value bet calculation. You can do it manually or use value betting software, especially if you are still new to the value betting system.
Create Betting Accounts with Several Betting Providers
To benefit more from the value betting strategy, you need to have accounts with several bookies. There is a limit to how many accounts you can have per bookie, but there is no limit to how many different bookies you can create betting accounts with. Therefore, for limitless betting opportunities, go for multiple bookmakers.
Compare Bookmakers and Odds - Find the Highest Betting Odds
Your main objective should not just be geared towards placing correct bets but ending up with a substantial payout. In that case, you need to compare bookmakers' odds and opt for one with the generous offers. For easy comparison, choose a bookie with odds formats you understand, like decimal odds formats or fractional odds types.
Use Betting Tools to Find Value Bets
It is not always easy to find value bets in different markets. Even if you master the formula of finding value bets manually, you will realise that it is quite time-consuming. With that said, consider using betting tools to find value bets. For instance, you can opt for value betting software instead of making manual calculations.
Consider Using Bonus Offers
Successful betting involves using every resource to your advantage. With that said, take note of the betting offers provided by the operator. For instance, you can opt for the welcome bonus if available or cashback promotions. Promotions can help you increase your betting frequency without depleting your bankroll.
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Find Risk Tips and Underdog Bets in Sub Leagues
You need to find risk tips and underground bets in sub-leagues. This trick is designed to help you discover favourable markets and locate substantial odds you can barely find in top leagues. For the best outcome, compare the underdog bets of different bookies.
Match Stake - Small Stake, Big Wins
Placing large stakes for big wins is not ideal for value betting. The best trick is to make small bets and end up winning big. This is only possible if you get matches with substantial odds.
Keep Track of Cash-Out
Value betting works well if you keep track of cash-out. This feature allows you to withdraw your wager from a live bet at an opportune moment. You can easily use the function to increase your expected earnings. To do so, make sure the odds are favourable during cash-out.
Find Value Bets in Live bets
Most players focus too much on pre-matches that they forget they can also find value bets in live bets. Be an all-round bettor and check the in-play section of sportsbooks for value bets. This widens your search for value bets and increases your chances of getting better options.
Popular Sports for Value Bets
The value betting strategy is more popular in sports betting than in casino gambling. But that does not mean you will find valuable bets on every sport a bookie offers. This section will cover popular sports for value bets so that you know where to look.
Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Tennis, American Football
You can get great value bets on basketball and ice hockey. You can also use the value betting strategy for American football or tennis bets. If you're a big football fan, consider yourself lucky since the sport covers the best markets for a value betting strategy.
Boxing, Horse Racing etc
Other sports you should consider for value bets include horse racing and boxing. These two sports have the best markets for value betting strategy and often have better odds. However, the suitability of the events for value bets often depends on the sportsbook.
The Best Bet Types for a Value Bet Strategy
Like sports, not every bet type is suitable for a value betting strategy. If you are new to this betting strategy, this section will provide you with the best bet types for a value bet strategy you should always consider.
2-Way Bets and Asian Handicap
Draw no Bet and Double Chance are great examples of two-way bets. The betting markets usually have a 50-50 chance of occurring, therefore suitable for value betting. You can also consider Asian Handicap, which entails the bookie disadvantaging a team to level the playing field.
1X2 bets
1X2 betting is yet another bet type to consider when using the value betting strategy. The betting market gives you a chance to gamble on a Home Win or Away Win with the high likelihood of the teams getting a draw.
Correct Score, Goalscorers, Halftime/Fulltime
Goalscorers and Correct Score can offer impressive value bets which you can make the most of to end up with a winning bet slip. If you are an expert gambler, you can also consider Halftime/full-time, which allows you to predict the exact score before halftime or after the match.
Live Betting
As stated in the value betting strategy tips, live betting offers some of the most enticing betting markets for value bettors. But then, you should mainly focus on late goals since such bet types often have value bets with the best odds.
- Playable everywhere
- High profits
- Useable with several betting systems.;
- Suitable long-term strategy
- Hard for bookmakers to notice value bets
- There is a need for Calculations
- Detailed analysis is mandatory
- Not every bet wins
Conclusion - Does the Value Bet Strategy Make Sense in Sports Betting
The value betting system is one of the most common sports betting strategies used by players across the globe. The concept is easy; you need to identify an event with a much better chance of occurring than the bookies' odds say and bet on it. From the information above, excellent analytical skills are essential in identifying value bets. After all, you must find implied probability and expected value before determining value bets. The good news is that the value betting system is one of the best strategies for long-term profitability, especially if you apply the tips and tricks stated above.
Value Bets as a Betting Strategy FAQ
❔ What Are Value Bets?
🏆 Do Value Bets Make Sense?
💶 How Do I Find Good Value Bets?
💳 How Do I Calculate the Probability of Value Bets?
🤔 Which Betting Markets Are Best Suited for The Value Bet Betting Strategy?
❔ Are Value Bets with Small Odds or High Odds Better?
🏆 Is a Value Bet Strategy Profitable in The Long Term?
💶 How Much Should I Stake When Placing Value Bets?
- Petty, L. (2018). What is a value bet? Pinnacle. https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/what-is-a-value-bet/MDFJ8GATUVW3M3MW
- What is value betting? (2019). Smarkets. https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115001485592-What-is-value-betting-
