2024 Presidential Election Odds

Ever since George Gallup beat the Literary Digest in predicting the 1936 Presidential election - and probably well before then - there has been great interest in the Presidential election odds every four years. The 2024 election is no exception, as gamblers and non-bettors alike want to know the odds of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or another candidate capturing the presidency.

In this guide, we'll look at the state of US presidential betting, the current election odds, and what you should look out for when betting on these markets.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election

US Presidential election trends

Over the last few weeks, the state of the US presidential election has come into sharp focus. We'll cover it in a bit more detail later in this article, but there is little doubt around the Democratic nomination, as Joe Biden will all but certainly be the party's candidate for reelection in November.

However, the Republican nomination process has also been narrowed over the last few weeks. Donald Trump scored a resounding victory in the Iowa Caucus, collecting 51% of the GOP vote and eliminating most of his competition. As of late January, only Nikki Haley still opposes his nomination in any serious sense, and barring a massive change in the race, she will be unable to prevent Trump from securing his third Republican nomination.

At the moment, Trump is also a favorite to win the presidency, though he faces a much tougher challenge in the general election than in the Republican primaries. Most polling currently has Trump with about a 5% edge in general election polling at the moment, but with the election still nearly ten months away, it's likely that the race will shift several times between now and November.

2024 Election Key Dates

• March 5 - September 10, 2024: State Primaries and Caucuses
• July 15-18, 2024: Republican National Convention
• August 19-22, 2024: Democratic National Convention
• November 5, 2024: US Presidential Election Day
• December 10, 2024: State Electors Must be Finalized
• December 16, 2024: State Electors Meet to Vote for President, Vice President
• January 6, 2025: Congress Meets to Certify Election Results
• January 20, 2025: President of the United States Sworn In

2024 Primary and Caucus Calendar

When are the Presidential debates?

Presidential debates are a key part of the race to become President of the United States. The campaign trail can come undone or dramatically repaired based on how they go for each candidate. This means we will likely see swings in the 2024 presidential election odds during and after these debates. Below are the key dates to keep in mind.

• September 16 - Presidential Debate (San Marcos, TX)
• September 25 - Vice Presidential Debate (Easton, PA)
• October 1 - Presidential Debate (Petersburg, VA)
• October 9 - Presidential Debate (Salt Lake City, UT)

Can I bet on the US presidential election?

It's certainly possible to bet on the US presidential election. However, your options are going to vary tremendously depending on where you live.

Outside of the United States, it's likely that you can bet on the 2024 US presidential election with few or no restrictions. However, Americans will find more limited options available to them.

Regulated sports betting sites in the United States are prohibited from offering betting on American elections by law, as no state has yet approved such markets. This means that even the best sportsbooks in the US are not able to offer odds on these markets.

However, exceptions have been made for predictive academic exchanges in which users can trade contracts on the outcome of upcoming elections.

For many years, the most famous of these was the Iowa Electronic Markets. More recently, PredictIt and other exchanges have also begun offering a wide range of presidential election odds.

If you want to keep tabs on what you can and can't bet on in your state, Oddspedia has a wealth of information available; just select your state below. Remember to check out the latest sportsbook promos in your state as well - even if you can bet on the election, you can earn some extra bonus funds for betting on other markets.

Presidential election betting markets

Naturally, presidential election betting is heavily focused on which candidate will win the White House. However, that's far from the only market available.

Betting sites offer a wide range of options that allow bettors to attack the election from any angle they like, from betting on individual states to focusing on certain aspects of the election rather than the specific winner.

Winning candidate

The winning candidate market asks you to pick which individual person will be elected President in an upcoming election. In the United States, however, this process isn't entirely straightforward.

The winning candidate will be the one who is certified as the winner by Congress, though some books will pay out the market if a winner is clear well before this date. In case of unclear results, however, markets may not be settled until this certification occurs.

Candidate betting often begins years before the election, allowing you to bet on potential candidates at more generous odds before the race narrows to only two major candidates.

Winning party

The winning party market allows you to bet on the political party of the individual who becomes President in an election. In modern American history, this has always been a member of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.

However, other results are possible. Third parties, such as the Libertarian Party and Green Party, do run presidential candidates each year, and independent candidates can also compete in the election.

The winning party market allows you to take all candidates from a party well before you know who that party's nominee will be. It also provides protection against a candidate dropping out due to illness, death, or scandal prior to the election, as you will still win if another candidate from that same party goes on to win.

Popular vote

The popular vote market may be the most straightforward election betting option available. This market simply asks you to predict which candidate will receive the most votes from across the United States. Note that this can be different than the electoral college winner.

While the popular vote market is simpler to resolve than the overall presidential winner, it may not be resolved on election night, either. Some states will continue to count votes for days after the election, while absentee ballots can also arrive late and potentially swing a close race.

State by state

As each state effectively holds its own election for its electoral college votes, most sites offering presidential election odds will also post odds for each competitive state.

These markets are typically settled based on the popular vote in an individual state, as in most states, this determines who earns all of the electoral college votes. There is some variation on this method in states such as Maine and Nebraska, which makes it worth reading the resolution rules at your betting site in case of potentially unclear results.

US Election betting odds explained

Here's an example of how presidential election odds work in practice. In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, likely Republican nominee Donald Trump is currently posted as the favorite to win the presidency at +110 odds. Meanwhile, the current President of the United States and presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, is listed at +190 odds.

But while these are the two likely candidates, bettors can also wager on longshots that can potentially win the presidency. For instance, former First Lady Michelle Obama is posted at +1500, while California Governor Gavin Newsom is listed at +2100. Nikki Haley is still contesting the Republican nomination as well, and is also listed at +2100.

American odds

American odds are the odds most frequently encountered at sportsbooks in the United States. In this system, every bet has odds listed with either a plus (+) or a minus (-) number.

When a number is listed with a plus, it tells you how much you would profit on a $ 100 bet. For instance, Donald Trump VP odds for Elise Stefanik are currently at +400, so a $100 bet would return $400 in profit if she is selected as VP.

If a number has a minus before it, this tells you how much you must bet to win $100 in profit. For instance, the Republican Party is currently favored to win the presidency at -118 odds. If you bet $118 on the Republicans to win the election, you would earn $100 in profit if you were correct.

Fractional

In fractional odds, the odds of each bet are expressed as a fraction that tells you how much you stand to win compared to the size of your bet.

For instance, in fractional odds, Donald Trump's presidential odds are 11/10. This means that if you bet $10, you would profit $11 if he were to win the 2024 presidential election. If a candidate were listed at 3/1 to win, every $1 you bet would return $3 should they win the presidency.

Decimal

Decimal odds show you how much money will be returned to you if you win a bet in relation to the size of your stake.

For instance, Nikki Haley currently has 13.10 decimal odds of winning the Republican nomination this year. If you bet $1 on Haley and she wins the nomination, you would win $12.10, for a total return of $13.10 (including your initial $1 bet).

Who Will Run for President in 2024?

As of January 2024, we've officially entered primary season, when the major political parties in the United States formally begin choosing their candidates for President. While the Democratic nominee is already known, as President Joe Biden is running unopposed, the Republican primary season is still an open contest.

Each party will officially nominate their candidate at their respective conventions, with the Republicans holding their convention in July, followed by the Democrats in early August. However, it is likely that the nominations for both parties will be clear well ahead of this date.

Campaign season never has an official start but will typically heat up after the conventions and run right up through November 5, the official date of the Presidential election in 2024.

On election night, results will begin coming in from every state. While news networks will declare winners in individual states based on the reported results, some states may remain too close to call for days or even weeks.

If a candidate clearly reaches the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory, we may know the winner late on the evening of November 5. On the other hand, a closer election may take weeks to call for certain, particularly if there are disputes over the voting in one or more states.

Is Joe Biden running to be US president?

The current President of the United States, Joe Biden, is running for reelection in 2024. While the Democratic Party will technically be running primaries for this election, there is no strong opposition to Biden's nomination, and he will all but certainly be the party's nominee for November's election.

Is Donald Trump running to be US president?

Former President of the United States, Donald Trump, is running for President again in 2024. Trump is the leading candidate to win the Republican Party nomination and is widely expected to be the party's candidate for President this year.

Who are the top candidates for the Democrat Party?

By far, the top candidate for the Democratic Party is Joe Biden, who stands as an imposing -345 favorite to win the party's nomination. Of those actively running for the nomination, Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips (+2000) has the best odds of pulling a monumental upset in the Democratic primaries.

Other names that sportsbooks are offering odds on aren't actually running for the nomination. They include Michelle Obama (+800), Gavin Newsom (+1400), and Vice President Kamala Harris (+2500).

Who are the top candidates for the Republican Party?

Donald Trump is the overwhelming -1667 favorite to win the Republican nomination for President of the United States in 2024. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is the only other major candidate still actively competing in the Republican primaries and is listed at +1210 to win the nomination.

Are any non-political candidates running?

In every election cycle, there is significant media coverage around non-political candidates who might throw their names into the ring in an attempt to win the presidential election. The 2024 election will be no different, as a handful of unusual names are likely to make their way onto ballots in at least some states.

Already, rumors have surrounded outgoing Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, though he has said he has no plans to do so. Kanye West made headlines by running for President in 2020 but isn't doing so in 2024.

Any candidate who wants to compete without winning the nomination of a major party -- or at least a minor one -- faces one massive hurdle: ballot access. While in some states, this requires just a few thousand signatures or a filing fee to get on the ballot, others require hundreds of thousands of signatures, a difficult task for any candidate, let alone one without the backing of a political party machine.

2024 US presidential election FAQs