2024 Presidential Election Odds
Ever since George Gallup beat the Literary Digest in predicting the 1936 Presidential election - and probably well before then - there has been significant interest in the Presidential election odds every four years. The 2024 election is no exception, as gamblers and non-bettors alike want to know the odds of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or another candidate capturing the presidency.
In this guide, we'll look at the state of U.S. presidential betting, the current election odds, and what you should look out for when betting on these markets.
- Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election
- US Presidential election trends
- 2024 Election Key Dates
- 2024 Primary and Caucus Calendar
- When are the Presidential debates?
- Can I bet on the US presidential election?
- Presidential election betting markets
- US Election betting odds explained
- Who Will Run for President in 2024?
- 2024 US presidential election FAQs
Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election
| Candidate | Odds |
| Donald Trump | -278 |
| Joe Biden | +500 |
| Kamala Harris | +1200 |
| Michelle Obama | +2500 |
US Presidential election trends
Over the last few weeks, the state of the U.S. presidential election has come into sharp focus. We'll cover it in a bit more detail later in this article. Still, there is little doubt around the Democratic nomination, as Joe Biden will all but certainly be the party's candidate for reelection in November.
However, the Republican nomination process has also been narrowed over the last few weeks. Donald Trump scored a resounding victory in the Iowa Caucus, collecting 51% of the GOP vote and eliminating most of his competition. Barring a massive change in the race or outcomes from Trump's convictions for falsifying business records in May 2024, no one will be able to prevent Trump from securing his third Republican nomination.
Currently, Trump is also a favorite to win the presidency, though he faces a much more formidable challenge in the general election than in the Republican primaries. Most polls show that Trump and Biden closely matched after the courtroom events of his criminal trial. However, with the election still six months away, the race will likely shift several times between now and November.
2024 Election Key Dates
- March 5 - September 10, 2024: State Primaries and Caucuses
- July 15-18, 2024: Republican National Convention
- August 19-22, 2024: Democratic National Convention
- November 5, 2024: US Presidential Election Day
- December 10, 2024: State Electors Must be Finalized
- December 16, 2024: State Electors Meet to Vote for President, Vice President
- January 6, 2025: Congress Meets to Certify Election Results
- January 20, 2025: President of the United States Sworn In
2024 Primary and Caucus Calendar
| Month | State | Democratic | Republican |
January 15 | Iowa | Caucus | |
January 23 | New Hampshire | Primary | Primary |
February 3 | South Carolina | Primary | |
February 6 | Nevada | Primary | |
February 8 | Nevada and Virgin Islands | Caucus | |
February 24 | South Carolina | Caucus | |
February 27 | Michigan | Primary | Primary |
March 2 | Idaho and Missouri | Caucus | |
March 4 | Alabama, California, Colorado, Main, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia | Primary | Primary |
March 4 | Alaska | Caucus | |
March 4 | American Samoa | Caucus | Caucus |
March 4 | Iowa | Caucus | |
March 4 | Utah | Primary | Caucus |
March 12 | Democrats Abroad | Primary | |
March 12 | Georgia, Mississippi, Washington | Primary | Primary |
March 12 | Hawaii | Caucus | |
March 12 | Northern Mariana | Primary | |
March 15 | Northern Mariana | Caucus | |
March 16 | Guam | Caucus | |
March 19 | Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Ohio | Primary | Primary |
March 23 | Louisiana | Primary | Primary |
March 23 | Missouri | Primary | |
April 2 | Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin | Primary | Primary |
April 6 | Alaska, Hawaii, North Dakota | Primary | |
April 13 | Wyoming | Caucus | |
April 20 | Wyoming | Caucus | |
April 21 | Puerto Rico | Primary | |
April 23 | Pennsylvania | Primary | Primary |
April 28 | Puerto Rico | Primary | |
May 7 | Indiana | Primary | Primary |
May 14 | Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia | Primary | Primary |
May 21 | Kentucky and Oregon | Primary | Primary |
May 25 | Idaho | Caucus | |
June 4 | District of Columbia | Primary | |
June 4 | Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota | Primary | Primary |
June 8 | Guam and Virgin Island | Caucus |
When are the Presidential debates?
Presidential debates are a vital part of the race to become President of the United States. Depending on how they go, each candidate's campaign trail can come undone or be dramatically repaired. This means we will likely see swings in the 2024 presidential election odds during and after these debates. Below are the remaining Presidential Debates, with one already concluded on June 27.
- September 16 - Presidential Debate (San Marcos, TX)
- September 25 - Vice Presidential Debate (Easton, PA)
- October 1 - Presidential Debate (Petersburg, VA)
- October 9 - Presidential Debate (Salt Lake City, UT)
Can I bet on the US presidential election?
It's possible to bet on the U.S. presidential election. However, your options will vary tremendously depending on where you live.
You can bet on the 2024 U.S. presidential election with few or no restrictions outside the United States. However, Americans will have more limited options.
Regulated sports betting sites in the United States are prohibited by law from offering betting on American elections, as no state has yet approved such markets. This means that even the best sportsbooks in the US are not able to offer odds on these markets.
However, exceptions have been made for predictive academic exchanges where users can trade contracts based on upcoming elections.
For many years, the Iowa Electronic Markets was the most famous. PredictIt and other exchanges have recently begun offering various presidential election odds.
If you want to keep tabs on what you can and can't bet on in your state, Oddspedia has a wealth of information available; select your state below. Remember to check out the latest sportsbook promos in your state as well - even if you can bet on the election, you can earn some extra bonus funds for betting on other markets.
| State | Online | Retail |
| Arizona Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Arkansas Sportsbooks | No | Yes |
| Colorado Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Connecticut Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Delaware Sportsbooks | No | Yes |
| Florida Sportsbooks | No | No |
| Illinois Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Indiana Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Iowa Sports Betting | Yes | Yes |
| Kentucky Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Louisiana Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Maryland Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Massachusetts Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Michigan Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Mississippi Sportsbooks | No | Yes |
| Montana Sportsbooks | On-Premises Only | Yes |
| Nevada Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| New Hampshire Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| New Jersey Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| New Mexico Sportsbooks | No | Yes |
| New York Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| North Carolina Sportsbooks | No | Yes |
| Ohio Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Oregon Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Pennsylvania Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Rhode Island Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Texas Sportsbooks | No | No |
| Vermont Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Virginia Sportsbooks | No | No |
| West Virginia Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Washington, DC Sportsbooks | Yes | Yes |
| Wisconsin Sportsbooks | No | No |
| Wyoming Sportsbooks | Yes | No |
Presidential election betting markets
Naturally, presidential election betting is heavily focused on which candidate will win the White House. However, there are other markets available.
Betting sites offer a wide range of options that allow bettors to attack the election from any angle they like, from betting on individual states to focusing on certain aspects of the election rather than the specific winner.
Winning candidate
The winning candidate market asks you to pick who will be elected President in an upcoming election. In the United States, however, this process can be more complex.
Congress will certify the winning candidate as the winner, though some books will pay out the market if a winner is evident well before this date. However, in case of unclear results, markets may only be settled once this certification occurs.
Candidate betting often begins years before the election, allowing you to bet on potential candidates at more generous odds before the race narrows to only two significant candidates.
Winning party
The winning party market allows you to bet on the political party of the individual who becomes President in an election. In modern American history, this has always been a member of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.
However, other results are possible. Third parties, such as the Libertarian Party and Green Party, run presidential candidates yearly, and independent candidates can compete in the election.
The winning party market allows you to take all candidates from a party well before you know who that party's nominee will be. It also protects a candidate from dropping out due to illness, death, or scandal before the election, as you will still win if another candidate from that party wins.
Popular vote
The popular vote market may be the most straightforward election betting option available. This market asks you to predict which candidate will receive the most votes across the United States. Note that this can be different than the electoral college winner.
While the popular vote market is more straightforward to resolve than the overall presidential winner, it may still need to be resolved on election night. Some states will continue to count votes for days after the election, while absentee ballots can also arrive late and potentially swing a close race.
State by state
As each state effectively holds its election for its electoral college votes, most sites offering presidential election odds will also post odds for each competitive state.
These markets are typically settled based on the popular vote in an individual state, as in most states, this determines who earns all of the electoral college votes. There are variations in this method in states such as Maine and Nebraska, making it worth reading the resolution rules at your betting site in case of potentially unclear results.
US Election betting odds explained
Here's an example of how presidential election odds work in practice. In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, likely Republican nominee Donald Trump is currently posted as the favorite to win the presidency at +110 odds. Meanwhile, the current President of the United States and presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, is listed at +190 odds.
But while these are the two likely candidates, bettors can also wager on longshots that can potentially win the presidency. For instance, former First Lady Michelle Obama is posted at +2500, while Robert F Kennedy Jr is listed at +3300. Potential Republican nominee, Nikki Haley is still listed at +6600.
American odds
American odds are the odds most frequently encountered at sportsbooks in the United States. In this system, every bet has odds listed with either a plus (+) or a minus (-) number.
When a number is listed with a plus, it tells you how much you would profit on a $ 100 bet. For instance, Donald Trump VP odds for Tim Scott are currently at +400, so a $100 bet would return $400 in profit if he is selected as VP.
If a number has a minus before it, this tells you how much you must bet to win $100 in profit. For instance, the Republican Party is currently favored to win the presidency at -110 odds. If you bet $110 on the Republicans to win the election, you would earn $100 in profit if you were correct.
Fractional
In fractional odds, the odds of each bet are expressed as a fraction that tells you how much you stand to win compared to the size of your bet.
For instance, Donald Trump's presidential odds are 11/10 in fractional odds. If you bet $10, you would profit $11 if he wins the 2024 presidential election. If a candidate were listed at 3/1 to win, every $1 you bet would return $3 should they win the presidency.
Decimal
Decimal odds show you how much money will be returned to you if you win a bet in relation to the size of your stake.
For instance, if Joe Biden has 2.50 decimal odds of winning a second term as U.S. President, and you bet $1 on Biden. If he wins the presidency, you would win $2.50, for a total return of $3.50 (including your initial $1 bet).
Who Will Run for President in 2024?
As of January 2024, we've officially entered primary season, when the major political parties in the United States formally begin choosing their presidential candidates. Both Democratic and Republican nominees are already known, as President Joe Biden is running unopposed, and former President Donald Trump convincingly won the Republican nomination early in 2024.
Each party will officially nominate its candidate at its respective convention, with the Republicans holding their convention in July and the Democrats in early August. However, the nominations for both parties will likely be transparent well ahead of this date.
Campaign season never has an official start but will typically heat up after the conventions and run right up through November 5, the official date of the Presidential election in 2024.
On election night, results will begin coming in from every state. While news networks will declare winners in individual states based on the reported results, some states may need more time to call for days or weeks.
If a candidate wins the 270 electoral college votes needed, we may know the winner late November 5. On the other hand, a closer election may take weeks to call, mainly if there are disputes over the voting in one or more states.
Is Joe Biden running to be US president?
The current President of the United States, Joe Biden, is running for reelection in 2024. While the Democratic Party will technically be running primaries for this election, there is no solid opposition to Biden's nomination, and he will all but certainly be the party's nominee for November's election.
Is Donald Trump running to be US president?
Donald Trump, former President of the United States, is running for President again in 2024. Trump is the leading candidate to win the Republican Party nomination and is widely expected to be the party's presidential candidate this year. This may change in light of his conviction for falsifying business records in May 2024, but it is unlikely to quell the support he enjoys within the Republican party.
Who are the top candidates for the Democrat Party?
By far, the top candidate for the Democratic Party is Joe Biden, who stands as an imposing -345 favorite to win the party's nomination. Of those actively running for the nomination, Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips (+2000) has the best odds of pulling a monumental upset in the Democratic primaries.
Other names that sportsbooks offer odds on aren't running for the nomination. They include Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Who are the top candidates for the Republican Party?
Donald Trump is the overwhelming -2500 favorite to win the Republican nomination for President of the United States in 2024. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is the only other significant candidate still actively competing in the Republican primaries and is listed at +2000 to win the nomination.
Are any non-political candidates running?
In every election cycle, there is significant media coverage around non-political candidates who might throw their names into the ring in an attempt to win the presidential election. The 2024 election will be no different, as a handful of unusual names are likely to make their way onto ballots in at least some states.
Already, rumors have surrounded outgoing Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, though he has said he has no plans to do so. Kanye West made headlines by running for President in 2020 but isn't doing so in 2024.
Any candidate who wants to compete without winning a major party's nomination—or at least a minor one—faces one massive hurdle: ballot access. While in some states, this requires just a few thousand signatures or a filing fee to get on the ballot, others require hundreds of thousands of signatures, a difficult task for any candidate, let alone one without the backing of a political party machine.
